Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 69. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 64. North winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 61 to 67 near the shore to 46 to 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with showers likely. Highs 73 to 78 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 83. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 67. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 52 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 39 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 55 at the visitor center to around 51 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 61 to 67 near the shore to 46 to 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with showers likely. Highs 73 to 78 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 64. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 71 to 78. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 71 to 81. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 56 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 69 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A band of showery low clouds will move through the islands from east to west today and tonight, with showers favoring windward areas and a few showers reaching leeward locales. The trades will become breezy Sunday through Monday, with showers continuing to favor windward and mauka areas particularly during nights and mornings. Trade winds and showers will diminish Tuesday through late next week, as a front stalls northwest of the island chain.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a weakening front is located around 200 miles northwest of Kauai, while a 1037 mb high is centered around 2300 miles northeast of Honolulu. A ridge extends southwestward from the high to a position near or just north of Kauai, keeping winds light and variable over the western islands, while light to moderate trades prevail over the eastern end of the state. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy conditions over the western half of the island chain, with partly to mostly cloudy conditions over Maui and the Big Island. Radar imagery shows scattered to numerous showers affecting windward sections of Maui County and the Big Island, with a few showers also affecting windward Kauai, and rain free conditions over Oahu. Main short term focus continues to revolve around rain chances and trade wind trends during the next few days.
The front northwest of the islands will remain nearly stationary and weaken into a trough today, while the ridge near Kauai begins to lift slowly northward. This will strengthen the trade winds from east to west across the islands today, although the trades will remain light enough to allow for localized sea breeze development over Kauai and Oahu. The trades will strengthen further tonight, reaching moderate to breezy levels by daybreak Sunday, and holding at these levels through Monday. An approaching cold front will then ease the trades on Tuesday, then stall out a few hundred miles northwest of the islands Wednesday through Friday, bringing a period of lighter winds along with daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes to many areas.
As for the remaining weather details, a broken band of showers and low clouds will push slowly westward today and tonight, bringing periods of showery weather as it moves through, particularly in windward locales. A more typical trade wind pattern should then set up Sunday through Tuesday, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly during nights and mornings, and a few showers reaching leeward areas from time to time. Lighter winds and more stable conditions are expected to lead to a decrease in showers during the middle to latter part of next week. Showers should remain confined mainly to the windward slopes and coasts at night, with a shower or two possible over the island interiors each afternoon.

Aviation

Trade winds have begun building back over the state from east to west, at light to moderate speeds in most areas, as a nearby surface ridge moves north. Winds will remain lightest at the west end of the chain today, with land breezes this early morning and sea breezes developing by the afternoon in many locales. Clouds and showers, and accompanying MVFR conditions, will mainly affect windward areas from Molokai eastward, with the Big Island seeing the most precipitation; and interior and mauka sections of Oahu and Kauai in the afternoon hours, along with leeward portions of the Big Island. Overall, however, VFR will predominate.
An AIRMET for mountain obscuration is in effect for windward parts of the Big Island, which will likely be extended through at least midday.

Marine

A surface ridge axis extending from high pressure centered off the central U.S. West Coast is draped across the western end of the state. This ridging over the waters north of the islands has created a very light wind field that will persist through the morning. Today's northeast to east winds will generally be light to gentle over the western half of the state while more moderate winds will fill in around Maui and Big Island later today. As the tail end of a dying cold front washes out across the northern waters this morning, the ridge will move back to the northwest and cause the pressure gradient back to the far northeast high center to assert more of an influence upon the region. The result will be a return to more areawide moderate to fresh trades from tonight through Tuesday. Locally strong trades channeling around Maui and Big Island will likely reach Small Craft Advisory magnitudes Sunday and Monday. North Pacific cold fronts may push the ridge axis north of the area a little further south and closer to the islands at mid week. This will provide a subtle weakening to overall trades Wednesday through Friday.
The west northwest swell that filled in yesterday has leveled out this morning. A similar size reinforcing west northwest swell is scheduled to arrive later this morning and afternoon. The High Surf Advisory (HSA) remains in effect for the north and west facing shores of the smaller islands through the afternoon. The next moderate size, medium period west northwest swell is expected to arrive sometime Tuesday. This swell has the potential to elevate mid week surf back up to HSA levels. East facing shore surf will remain somewhat elevated today as a small easterly swell originating from an upstream fresh to strong trade fetch comes across the island chain. Surf along south facing shores will remain slightly higher than winter norms as these shores continue to receive more medium to long period swell energy from the Southern Hemisphere the next couple of days.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Windward Haleakala.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov