Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 87. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 73. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 87. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 69 near the shore to 47 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 84 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 83 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 65 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 69 near the shore to 47 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 84 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 79. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 65. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 71 to 81. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 56 to 72. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 66 to 83. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Expect breezy trade wind conditions to continue into next week as high pressure persists to our north. Cloud cover and scattered showers will favor windward and mountain areas. Trades may decrease around the middle of next week as a weakness develops in the subtropical ridge.

Discussion

There is little to no change in forecast philosophy since last evening. Strong high pressure far northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands has an associated ridge extending to the west northwest. The pressure gradient between this ridge and equatorial low pressure remains sufficiently steep to drive breezy trade winds across the islands this morning. Cloud cover increased a bit over the past 12 hours, with broken to overcast low clouds covering all windward and significant portions of mountain areas, especially on Kauai and Oahu. Radar shows isolated to scattered showers within this cloud cover. Overnight soundings featured a strong inversion near 6500 feet, likely working to cap convective cloud tops and limiting rainfall.
High pressure northeast of the state will continue to drive moderate to locally strong trade winds for the next several days, with little variation in speed. Otherwise, scattered light showers will mainly affect windward and mountain areas of the islands through at least the first half of next week. Models show the potential for a decrease in trade winds around the middle of next week due to a surface trough moving eastward north of the state. However, models differ somewhat heading into the latter half of the week. GFS keeps weak troughing to the north due to a strong low near the Gulf of Alaska, while ECMWF has high pressure building back in and a weaker trough to the north. Therefore, the ECMWF solution has stronger winds across Hawaiian waters than the GFS solution. Blending the two solutions, the gridded database continues to depict slightly weaker trades across the area after midweek next week.

Aviation

High pressure remains anchored northeast of the state resulting in breezy to locally strong tradewinds. AIRMET TANGO for moderate low- level turbulence will remain posted for the foreseeable future.
Isolated showers will impact mainly windward and mauka areas, with occasional MVFR conditions possible under passing showers. Lower clouds should remain patchy enough so don't think an AIRMET SIERRA for mountain obscuration is necessary, but will continue to monitor. Otherwise, conditions should remain predominately VFR.
The last bit of lingering mid and high level clouds over the eastern half of the state continue to move northeast early this morning and should clear the area by this afternoon. Will keep AIRMET ZULU posted for light icing, but expect conditions to improve through the morning hours.

Marine

Locally strong trade winds will likely prevail into early next week due to surface high pressure far north and northeast of the state. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the gusty trades over the typically windier waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island through Sunday afternoon. Based on the latest forecast, this SCA will likely need to be extended into early next week for these same marine zones. A surface low moving to a position far north-northwest of the state around mid-week may cause the trade winds to weaken by Wednesday.
Forerunners from a long-period northwest swell from an azimuth of 330 to 340 degrees have arrived at the National Data Buoy Center buoys northwest of Kauai. This swell will spread across the area through this evening, and will likely peak later tonight or Sunday morning. Surf produced by this swell is expected to reach the High Surf Advisory criteria along most north facing shores of the smaller islands during the peak of the swell. The north- northwest swell will gradually lower from late Sunday through early next week. Small north-northwest and northwest swells during the middle of next week are expected to keep small surf along exposed north and west facing shores from Wednesday through Friday.
A moderate, long period south swell arriving today is expected to cause surf to gradually increase slightly above the seasonal average along most south facing shores this weekend. This south swell will gradually lower early next week.
The locally strong trade winds in the vicinity of, and upstream of the islands will continue to maintain moderate, choppy surf along most east facing shores. Therefore, expect surf to remain near the seasonal average along east facing shores into early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov