Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 77 to 88. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs 75 to 87. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 66 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 86. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 74 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 48 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with frequent showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 82 to 89. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 71. East winds 10 to 25 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 87. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 74 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 48 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with frequent showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 63. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 72 to 81. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 66 to 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 56 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 65 to 86. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A breezy and mostly dry trade wind weather pattern will continue this week. Shower coverage will increase tonight into Tuesday, but total rainfall will be light.

Discussion

High pressure far northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands continues to drive breezy trade winds across local waters this morning. Overnight soundings show a stable airmass with a strong 5000 to 6000 feet inversion over the area. Broken to overcast low clouds cover most windward and mauka locations as a large band of clouds embedded within trade flow passes through the islands. Radar shows isolated shower activity, with scant showers noted within a weak plume lee of Maui County as well as within a cluster just upwind from Oahu.
The current breezy and mostly dry weather pattern will continue through today as the high stays in place and ridging aloft suppresses deep convection. Patchy broken low clouds will move in with the trades, but will anchor along the lower windward slopes. Models show a band of remnant frontal moisture reaching the islands from the northeast Monday night. This will increase windward shower coverage and possibly provide a slight boost to wind speeds. This increased moisture will push through to the west by midday Tuesday. The remainder of the week will feature continued upper ridging that will further reinforce stability and limit overall rainfall. Trades will focus any incoming clouds and showers over windward slopes.

Aviation

The band of low level moisture drifting across the islands, trapped below the strengthening low lvl inversions, continues to generate mainly VFR to occasionally MVFR cigs across TAF locations. MVFR conditions have not been extensive enough through the morning hours to generate widespread mountain obscuration or need for AIRMET at this time. Also, current satellite trends would suggest that this area of clouds should continue to breakup some after sunrise as diurnal distribution develops through Monday afternoon, before clouds expand once again in areal coverage this evening. Shallow moisture across the region, combined with stable conditions, will continue to limit chances for showers through tonight.
Otherwise, the area of high pressure well north of the islands will maintain breezy trade wind flow through the TAF period. This persistent flow pattern will continue the need for AIRMET Tango across much of the islands for low level turbulence lee of the terrain.

Marine

Surface high pressure far north northeast of the area will continue to produce moderate to locally strong trade winds over the next several days. A Small Craft Advisory is currently posted for the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island through Tuesday night.
Short period choppy surf will dominate the Hawaiian shorelines this week with a slight downward trend expected towards the weekend as trade winds become lighter. Otherwise, there will be a series of rather small northwest and south swells throughout the forecast period keeping surf above flat levels.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov