Photo Credit: Pamela Goguen Lynch

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 87. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 63 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 87. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 58 to 74. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 58 to 74. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 63 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. East winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 87. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 70. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 86. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light to moderate trade winds will prevail through Sunday night. A weak upper-level disturbance may bring a slight increase in low clouds and showers, especially across windward areas this weekend. Some leeward sections may also see clouds and showers each afternoon as local sea breezes become established. The trade winds will likely become locally breezy starting early next week. Also, expect a more stable and dry trade weather pattern starting Monday.

Discussion

A 1027 mb surface high pressure system is centered near 41N 160W, or slightly more than 1300 miles north of Honolulu. This feature is weakening as it moves slowly toward the south. In addition, there is a 1014 mb surface low near 44N 145W, or about 1750 miles north-northeast of Hilo. A weak front extends south from this feature through a point less than 600 miles north of Lihue. These areas of lower pressure have caused the pressure gradient to relax across the area. Therefore, there are light to locally moderate trade winds in the vicinity of the islands. The relatively weak trade winds allowed local nighttime land breezes to set up over most leeward and interior sections of the islands overnight.
Loops of water vapor satellite imagery show a rather compact mid- level low pressure system located just north of Kauai. The close proximity of this feature to the state is causing a slight destabilization of the atmosphere. Loops of satellite imagery and radar reflectivity data show scattered to broken low clouds with embedded scattered showers moving in from the east-northeast toward the windward Big Island, Maui, and Molokai. There are scattered low clouds and isolated showers moving in from the northeast toward Kauai. Partly cloudy skies with isolated showers are over parts of windward Oahu. Additional areas of broken low clouds and showers are evident within a couple of hundred miles upstream of the islands.
The forecast guidance shows the light to moderate trade winds will persist through Sunday night. This will allow an alternating pattern of local afternoon sea breezes and nighttime land breezes over most leeward areas. The nearby low aloft will also keep the atmosphere slightly unstable this weekend. Therefore, the pockets of moisture upstream of the islands will likely result in enhanced coverage of low clouds and showers, especially for windward Maui County and the Big Island. In addition, the unstable conditions may also allow some of the showers to become a bit heavier than normal for June, especially over the leeward Big Island each afternoon. Most leeward areas of the smaller islands could also have increased clouds and showers during the afternoon once the sea breezes become established.
Looking ahead to early next week, the forecast guidance shows locally breezy trade winds will return by late Monday as surface high pressure builds far north of the islands. At the same time, a mid-level ridge will replace the low aloft once it departs. This will produce stable atmospheric conditions with typical modest June rainfall focused mainly over windward and mauka areas.

Aviation

Light to moderate trades will persist through tonight, with localized sea and land breezes expected in some of the more sheltered leeward areas. A band of low clouds and showers will slowly move from east to west through the island today. Some MVFR cigs and vsbys will likely hang in over windward Maui County and the Big Island this morning as this band moves through, with some improvement possible this afternoon. The MVFR conditions could spread to windward Oahu later this morning, but confidence in widespread reduced cigs and vsbys is low. Leeward sections of all islands may see some brief MVFR conditions in afternoon shower development as well.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across windward sections of Maui County and the Big Island. These conditions are expected to hold in place through much of the morning, with some improvement possible this afternoon.

Marine

Trade winds will remain gentle to moderate as low pressure and an associated front pass far northeast of the islands. These features will weaken the pressure gradient enough to generally maintain lighter weekend winds. As the low weakens and surface high pressure to the north expands and strengthens next week, trade winds will become fresh to strong. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required for the windier zones around Maui and Big Island starting late Monday.
Surf along all shores will remain well below High Surf Advisory (HSA) thresholds this weekend. This recent small, long period south swell will maintain steady waist high south facing shore surf. A reinforcing south southwest bump Monday may peak south surf to just under HSA levels Tuesday and Wednesday. This recent weakness in the trades will dampen east facing shore wind wave chop. A small, low period northeast swell passing around the islands tonight through Sunday will provide a minor boost to early week surf along many northeastern and eastern exposures.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov