Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 69 to 76. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 88. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 69 to 75. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 52 to 57 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 69 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 52 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 52 to 57 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 75 to 83. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows 65 to 70. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 72 to 90. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 61 to 75. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 90. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep moderate to locally breezy winds in the forecast into much of next week. A cloud band from an old front will diminish over the islands today as we return to a more typical passing trade wind showers. Wetter trends may develop by next Wednesday as deep tropical moisture could track into the state from the Eastern Pacific and enhance rainfall across the island chain.

Discussion

The satellite picture this morning shows a diminishing band of clouds stretching eastward from Maui. Local radar imagery shows isolated to scattered showers across the state. Another weak wave in the easterlies will move into the Big Island and Maui by this evening, increasing shower activity over windward sections of both islands through Saturday morning. The subtropical jet stream remains active northwest of Kauai with high level cirrus clouds, made of ice crystals, enhancing Hawaiian sunrise and sunset colors.
The high pressure system far north of Kauai will slowly drift eastward through Wednesday. Trade winds will remain in the moderate to locally breezy range over the state with slight day to day changes in the wind speeds. Shower activity will change to a more typical passing shower regime for most areas through Tuesday. The one exception will be over the windward Big Island and eastern Maui on Friday night and Saturday as a weak wave in the easterly wind flow will bump up shower activity a bit for the eastern islands especially in the overnight to early morning hours. A brief drying trend is expected on Sunday due to increasing stability from stronger subsidence, resulting in lower trade wind inversion heights, and slightly stronger wind speeds as the temperature inversion shrinks the boundary layer.
The weather pattern trends wetter from Wednesday onward, as deeper tropical moisture (remnants of Tropical Cyclone Bonnie) drift over the region. Global models continue to agree that this unstable moisture will move into the eastern islands by Wednesday afternoon and spread westward into Oahu and Kauai by Wednesday night. If this deeper moisture tracks as the long range model solutions predict, then we could see decent rainfall amounts across all islands. The far extended range forecast guidance even hints at another surge of deeper tropical moisture moving up into the region by the following weekend around July 16th. Stay tuned for changes to the long range weather forecast as these systems get closer to the islands.

Aviation

High pressure to the north of the state will allow for breezy trade winds to persist through the forecast period. Thus, expect scattered showers to mainly affect windward locations, with isolated activity elsewhere. There may be periods of MVFR ceiling and visibility that accompany some of the heavier showers, though not expecting anything widespread.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low level turbulence to the lee of higher elevations statewide.

Marine

No significant changes to the forecast this morning, and the forecast philosophy remains the same. High pressure to the north will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds into the weekend, with an uptick in wind speeds expected this weekend. This uptick is expected to persist into the start of the new week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the windier waters near Maui County and Big Island through Monday. The SCA may need to be expanded to include additional coastal waters this weekend with the uptick in winds.
No significant swells are expected over the next few days. As trades strengthen this weekend, some east facing shores may see a little bump, but nothing significant is expected. A long period southwest to south swell is expected to reach the islands early next week, boosting surf to near to slightly above normal for the summer months. A small, medium period, east swell generated by Hurricane Bonnie, currently in the East Pacific, may arrive early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Maui Now Weather is brought to you by Blue Hawaiian Helicopters.

Check out their Maui Helicopter Tours today!

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov