Photo Credit: Allen Tate

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 84 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 66. North winds up to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 60 to 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 64 to 70. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 60 to 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 61 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 88. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue through tonight, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. A transition to a land and sea breeze regime is expected late Wednesday, that will persist through the second half of the week as an upper disturbance and surface trough move in from the east. Clouds and showers will shift to interior and mountain locations through the afternoon hours where sea breezes form each day. A return of a more typical trade wind pattern is anticipated this weekend.

Discussion

Moderate to breezy trade winds will hold through tonight, then ease Wednesday as an upper low and surface trough approach and move in from the east. Despite the stable conditions in place associated with a strong upper ridge and subsidence inversion, spotty windward and mauka showers will continue. An increase in deep layer moisture combined with the added instability from the aforementioned upper low and surface trough could fuel localized heavy showers, and a thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out over the eastern end of the state tonight through Wednesday. Once the surface trough moves through, the low-level flow will shift out of the east-southeast late Wednesday through the second half of the week. This pattern shift will translate to a land and sea breeze regime setting up, which will support a few spotty afternoon showers over our leeward areas.
Increasing trade winds and a stable shower pattern will return this weekend.

Aviation

Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue through today, before easing tonight. Low clouds and showers will continue to favor windward and mauka areas, with a few showers reaching leeward areas as well due to the strength of the trades. As the showers move through some brief MVFR cigs/vsbys can be expected in windward areas, while VFR conditions prevail in leeward locales.
AIRMET SIERRA remains in effect for windward sections of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island. Conditions should improve here later this morning.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the day, with turbulence decreasing tonight.

Marine

A high pressure system will linger far north of the Hawaiian Islands. A surface trough will move into the northern waters Wednesday through Thursday, causing the trade wind speeds to weaken. Lighter trade winds will allow land and sea breezes to develop along the near shore waters from tonight through Friday morning. Trade winds will strengthen on Friday and return into the fresh to locally strong range over the weekend. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) was extended through the afternoon for the typically windier waters around Maui and the Big Island. This SCA will likely be dropped by tonight. Unstable conditions will arrive later tonight through Wednesday as an upper level disturbance passes over northern Big Island and Maui waters producing isolated thunderstorms.
A south swell currently affecting local waters will keep surf heights elevated along south facing shores today. Surf heights will decrease from tonight onward as this south swell energy declines. Only small background south swells are expected from Wednesday through the weekend, keeping lower surf heights along south facing shores.
Surf along east facing shores will hold steady today. Wind waves will decrease on Wednesday as trades ease; however distant tropical activity in the eastern Pacific will send a small, medium period, east swell into the area from tonight through Friday. This east swell will produce a slight boost to east shore surf during this period of lighter trade winds. Surf along north facing shores will remain nearly flat this week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov