Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 91. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 70 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 91. North winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 70 to 76. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 90. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 88 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 51 to 57 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 92. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 70 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 83 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly clear with scattered showers. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 88 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 51 to 57 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 67. Light winds.

Monday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 71 to 92. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 77. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 70 to 92. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds across the southern end of the state will spread over the remaining islands as the day wears on. A drier airmass moving in from the east will produce fair trade wind weather for most areas today. A return of windward and mauka showers are expected Monday with trades gradually strengthening during the first half of next week. Locally strong trades are possibly by middle of next week.

Discussion

As expected no major changes with the morning forecast package. Have nudge PoPs upwards near Kauai and somewhat near Oahu today and this evening. A batch of heavier showers moved over the windward side of Kauai overnight, but was short lived. The possibility of similar shower activity will remain a possibility near Kauai today, but expect improving conditions as the day wears on.
The surface ridge that have been over the islands is lifting to the north, and has allowed trade winds to start filtering back over the southern islands. Expect the trade winds to spread over the remaining islands today, resulting in a hybrid sea breeze/trade wind pattern, with trades expected statewide by Monday, building further during the first half of the new week.
A surface trough to the west of the islands is the driving force behind the showers near Kauai mentioned above. This trough is expected to continue to move to the west and weaken. High clouds streaming over the islands from the west are due to an upper level trough to the north of the islands. This upper level feature is expected to lift northward, which will pull the high clouds with it.
A more typical trade winds shower pattern is expected starting Monday and continuing into midweek as the ridge of high pressure becomes further established far north of the state. Locally strong trades are possible by mid- week as an area of low pressure potentially develops and passes far south of the state.

Aviation

Early Sunday morning radar and satellite imagery reveals a band of showers passing over Kauai and the Kauai Channel. Brief MVFR CIG or VIS in moderate showers is likely in this band. These showers should exit the area by noon, today. Meanwhile, multiple bands of weak showers can be seen just upstream of the Islands and are expected to reach windward Big Island and East Maui by morning.
Easterly trade wind flow has become re-established across the Big Island and Maui: conditions are expected to spread across the remainder of the state by afternoon. Shower activity this afternoon should be limited and impact mainly east facing slopes and coasts.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for portions of Maui and Molokai due to low-level mechanical turbulence leeward of mountains.

Marine

Easterly trade winds will gradually strengthen from east to west over the next couple of days. A surface trough far northwest of Kauai will slowly weaken and drift northward during this time, allowing high pressure to the distant north to exert a greater influence. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been scaled back to the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island. The SCA has also been extended through early morning Tuesday. A further increase in winds is possible Tuesday and Wednesday as a potential tropical disturbance passes far south of the islands. If this occurs, a SCA could be needed for most Hawaiian waters.
Little significant swell is anticipated through next week. A small short-period northeast swell will diminish today. Building trade winds will produce a gradual increase in short-period waves to east facing shores during the next couple of days, peaking around Wednesday. A small, long-period south swell may arrive Tuesday, while a small, shorter-period south-southeast swell is expected over the next couple of days.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov