Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 89. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 73. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 83 to 90. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 86 to 91. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 67. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 87 to 92. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 62 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 89. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 71. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 90. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 62 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 84. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 69. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 84. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 90. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 63 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 79 to 89. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light east to southeast winds will linger into tonight, which supports the land and sea breeze regime with humid conditions continuing. Clouds and showers will favor windward areas, except over interior and leeward locations through the afternoon and evening hours where sea breezes form. A return of breezy easterly trade wind conditions is anticipated Thursday through the weekend.

Discussion

Near-term guidance remains in good agreement and depicts the weakness in the ridge holding north of the area into tonight as a front passes far to the north. This has resulted in a light east to southeast low-level flow for Hawaii that supports the land and sea breeze regime continuing. Clouds and showers will favor windward areas overnight through the morning hours, then over interior and mauka locations through the afternoon and early evening periods where sea breezes form. This combined with a sufficient amount of low-level moisture approaching and moving through and an upper trough lingering over the region could trigger spotty heavy afternoon showers today, and a thunderstorm or two over the slopes of the Big Island can't be ruled out.
Rising upper heights combined with drier air filling in from east to west will lead to more stable conditions late Thursday through the upcoming weekend. The surface ridge will retreat northward and strengthen and a return of breezy trade wind conditions is anticipated beginning Thursday.

Aviation

A weak ridge north of the islands will keep light to moderate trade winds in place through tonight, with localized land and sea breezes common in sheltered leeward areas. Some brief MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible in windward areas through mid morning, with greater coverage of MVFR conditions expected this afternoon over interior and leeward sections of the islands.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

A weak east to west oriented surface ridge appears to be about 250 nm north of the Lihue early this morning. The close proximity of this feature to the islands will maintain gentle to moderate trade winds through early Thursday morning. This relatively light wind regime will likely allow the development of local afternoon sea breezes and nighttime land breezes. Localized terrain-induced wind acceleration may produce pockets of choppy sea conditions near some coasts during the afternoon hours. The surface ridge is expected to build, and shift to the north starting Thursday, which will likely cause the trade winds to strengthen. As a result, the current forecast has Small Craft Advisory conditions for the typically windier waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island from Thursday through this weekend.
Small background south and southeast swells are expected to produce below typical summertime surf heights along along south facing shores into Friday. Forerunners from a new, long-period south swell are expected to arrive late Friday night. This swell will likely produce near, to slightly above normal surf along south facing shores from this weekend into early next week. Surf will remain small along east facing shores during the next few days due to the weak trade winds. As the trade winds strengthen later this week, there may be a return to modest, choppy surf along east facing shores from this weekend into early next week. Expect nearly flat conditions to persist along north facing shores through tonight. Small, short-period north-northwest swells starting Thursday may provide a slight boost in surf heights along exposed north facing shores through this weekend. The forecast guidance appears to show a slightly larger and longer period northwest swell may arrive early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov