Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 91. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 69 to 75. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 84 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 88 to 93. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 70. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 88 to 93. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 89 near the shore to 62 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 89 near the shore to 62 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 68 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 89 near the shore to 62 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 89 near the shore to 62 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Highs 76 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Lows around 69. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 76 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 80 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 63 to 74. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 80 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Expect moderate to locally breezy trade winds lasting through Wednesday with passing clouds and showers favoring windward and mountain areas. A low level trough passing over the islands will enhance shower activity across the state through the morning hours. Trade winds will weaken on Thursday, as we transition to a more hybrid windward trade wind and leeward sea breeze regime from Friday through Monday. In this hybrid wind pattern clouds and scattered showers will favor mountain and island interior sections each afternoon and then shift to windward areas during the overnight time periods.

Discussion

A low level trough passing through the islands this evening will bring periods of showers to each island, favoring windward and mountain areas. Satellite imagery this evening supports these short term shower trends with more unstable cloud bands drifting in on the trade winds. A weak subtropical jet stream over the islands will bring a few high cirrus clouds to the region this week.
A high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will slowly drift east through the week keeping moderate to locally breezy trade winds in the forecast through Wednesday. A low level trough will pass west of the state later this morning. Drying trends will develop by the afternoon hours as more stable conditions move into the region from the east. Otherwise passing showers will favor windward and mountain areas into Thursday, mainly in the overnight to early morning hours.
On Thursday the weather pattern begins to transition to a hybrid windward light trades and leeward sea breeze pattern. By Friday large scale trade winds decrease even further, allowing sea breezes to strengthen over leeward areas. Surface heating over each island and sea breeze trade wind convergence will produce clouds and showers over mountains and island interior sections from afternoon to early evening. This hybrid wind pattern will last through the weekend into early next week. One wrinkle in the forecast are two weak troughs moving through northeast trade wind background flow. These are likely remnants of an old cold front that dissipated in the northeast Pacific drifting into the islands. These cloud bands will likely increase windward and mountain clouds and showers a bit, mainly in the overnight to early morning hours from Friday through Sunday. The forecast guidance agrees with the wetter trends during this lighter trade wind period, however the timing of these rainfall impacts varies from model to model. Will likely trend our precipitation chances a bit higher for windward areas in the morning forecast grids for this extended time period.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue through tonight. A band of enhanced moisture will move from east to west through the island chain early this morning, bringing showery weather to windward areas and allowing a few more showers to reach leeward communities as well. Drier more stable conditions are expected statewide this afternoon.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for windward sections of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. Conditions should improve from east to west across the island chain this morning.

Marine

High pressure north of the state will drive moderate to locally strong trade winds across local waters through most of the coming week. A brief trade wind increase is expected as a band of showers pushes through the area. A Small Craft Advisory for the typically windier waters around Maui County and Big Island has been issued through 6 am HST Wednesday.
Surf along south facing shores will remain steady this week into Thursday producing near seasonal average surf heights. A gale low in the Tasman Sea will send a moderate south southwest swell towards Hawaii this weekend. A series of small, medium period north swells will provide a minor bump through the end of the week for north facing shores. Near term east wind wave chop will remain slightly elevated under moderate to fresh trades over and upstream of the islands. East swell generated from eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Kay may also arrive over the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov