Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 91. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers early in the evening. Lows 65 to 72. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 90. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 90. Light winds becoming west around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Scattered showers early in the evening. Lows around 66. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 89. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 83 to 89 near the shore to 63 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening, then scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 90. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening. Lows 64 to 70. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 89. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 83 to 89 near the shore to 63 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening, then scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 66. North winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 89. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Scattered showers early in the evening. Lows 61 to 72. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 90. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light trade winds will continue through Saturday as a low pressure system north of the state continues to weaken the subtropical ridge. Local scale land and sea breezes are forecast during this light wind period with clouds developing over mountain and island interior sections each afternoon. Showers will develop from afternoon to evening over the islands in sea breezes with overnight clearing as more stable down slope land breezes form. On Sunday we transition back to a moderate trade wind pattern as the ridge strengthens north of the state. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mountain areas mainly in the overnight to early morning hours from Sunday through Wednesday. Sea breezes return as trade winds weaken by the end of next week.

Discussion

A weakening cold front has stalled out north of the Hawaiian Islands this morning. This frontal trough will continue to weaken the subtropical ridge north of the state through Saturday producing light trade winds and stronger afternoon sea breezes. A weak easterly wave is roughly 800 miles east of Hilo moving west towards the islands, increasing clouds and shower chances on Sunday as it passes through the state. A subtropical jet stream over the region will bring increasing high cirrus clouds over the next few days, enhancing sunrise and sunset colors.
Short range forecast guidance continues to show light trade winds in the forecast through Saturday. In the absence of large scale winds, local scale sea breezes will develop from late morning to afternoon in response to surface heating over the islands. An upper level trough slowly moving through the region will help enhance afternoon to early evening sea breeze showers on Friday, with decreasing shower trends expected on Saturday as this upper trough weakens over the region. Weather conditions will feel warmer and more humid during the day in this sea breeze regime.
On Sunday, we transition back to more moderate trade winds as the front north of the region weakens, allowing the ridge to strengthen north of the state. Sea breezes will decrease in coverage and be confined to more terrain sheltered leeward areas. A low level trough will move into Hilo from the east around midnight early Sunday morning, spreading unstable clouds and showers westward across the state, reaching Kauai by Sunday afternoon. Enhanced showers with this low level trough will pass west of all islands by early Monday morning with improving weather trends from east to west. Brief passing showers will continue through Wednesday in this moderate trade wind pattern, mainly affecting windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours. Leeward areas will see fairly dry conditions from Monday through Wednesday.
This 'Hana Hou weather pattern' repeats itself by the end of next week. As another cold frontal system approaching the Hawaii region from the north will weaken the ridge and lighten the trade winds from Thursday to Friday. Local scale sea breezes will strengthen and the weather pattern will shift back to mountain and island interior section cloud cover, along with brief shower activity favoring afternoon to early evening hours. This sea breeze pattern may continue into the following weekend. Stay tuned.

Aviation

Weak trade wind flow continues through the forecast period. Clouds and showers will continue to favor windward and mauka locations. Sea breeze clouds and isolated showers look to redevelop across sheltered leeward areas this afternoon and should diminish shortly after sunset this evening. Expect mainly VFR conditions at all TAF sites, with occasional MVFR cigs possible.

Marine

No significant changes to the forecast with the morning package. Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels into the new week.
A ridge to the north of the main Hawaiian islands, and drifting southward, will keep winds on the lighter side for another day or two. Sunday should see high pressure building to the northeast which will allow the trades to rebound to moderate levels by Monday, and continuing through much of the new week.
A small, longer period south (190 degrees) swell, combined with a small, short period southeast (140 degrees) swell will gradually decline through early next week. A new small, long period south (190 degrees) swell is expected to arrive late Tuesday. The current small, short period northeast (040 degrees) swell will fade today, with a new small, short period north swell expected to arrive Saturday. This north swell is expected to persist into early next week, with another boost possible Wednesday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov