Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 90. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 74. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 91. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 91. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 68. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 91. Light winds. Gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 89 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 66 to 71 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 90 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 86 to 93. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 66 to 71. Southeast winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 86 to 93. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 48 at the summit. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 89 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 66 to 71 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 90 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers late in the evening. Lows around 66. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 92. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 72. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 92. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Localized sea breezes will favor interior clouds and showers this afternoon, especially over portions of Oahu where a few locally heavy showers will be possible. Light background winds will favor a land and sea breeze pattern through the first half of next week.

Discussion

Persistent shallow convection within island plumes has been working over the boundary layer in the leeward waters for the balance of the night and has even allowed a few showers to drift onshore over Leeward Oahu early this morning. As the diurnal heating period progresses, emerging sea breezes will provide an inland focus not only for local convergence but for island plume interaction. If the overnight period has been any indication, the Lanai and Molokai plumes may be sufficiently active to provide an added boost to rainfall over portions of Oahu today. However, gradual backing of 850-700mb winds to a more SSE direction has the potential to direct corridors of enhanced convergence north of the islands sooner rather than later. Regardless, the potential for locally heavy rain is increased compared to yesterday, especially for Oahu, even as background conditions and overall stability profile remain largely unchanged. Land breezes will bring clearing to most areas tonight and allow the focus for showers to shift offshore.
Stability then increases beginning Saturday in response to building mid-level ridging over the islands. At the same time, pressure falls across the Central Pacific will further weaken the gradient and favor a transition to a more classic land/sea breeze pattern during the first half of next week. Throughout this time, interior clouds and isolated showers will be favored each afternoon followed by land breezes and clearing each night.

Aviation

Light to locally moderate easterly winds will steer bands of scattered light showers off the Pacific towards the Islands. Later today, local sea breezes will encourage cumulus buildups over island interiors, especially Interior Big Island and East Maui. Brief moderate to heavy showers are possible in the late afternoon and early evening hours.
Bands of layered cirrus out of the southwest will continue to stream across the eastern half of the state. These high clouds are likely to persist through much of the weekend.
No AIRMETs are in effect or anticipated at this time.

Marine

A low pressure system far northwest of the islands will continue to weaken the high pressure ridge just north of the state. Expect Light to moderate breezes from the east to southeast direction through the weekend. A cold front then stalls north of the region by Tuesday keeping light to moderate easterly breezes in the forecast through the first half of next week. Wind speeds will likely remain below small craft for all Hawaiian waters into Wednesday.
The latest south swell energy will slowly decrease through the day today. A brief decrease in south swell energy will then increase again from tonight to Saturday, with elevated south shore surf heights lasting through Sunday. South swell energy will gradually trend lower with more background south to southeast swell energy in play through the first half of next week. West facing shores will benefit with elevated surf heights from these long period south swells.
Expect declining surf along north facing shores through this afternoon as a small medium period north-northwest swell fades. Another small bump in north-northwest swell energy should arrive later tonight, briefly increasing north shore surf through Saturday, then fading into almost flat levels from Saturday night into Monday. The next small bump in north shore surf may arrive with another north- northwest swell arriving from Monday night into Wednesday with fun size sets.
Light trade winds will keep small surf in the forecast along east facing shores through at least next Wednesday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov