Photo Credit: Travis Guthrie

West Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 76 to 84. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 63 to 71. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 75 to 84. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 84. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 63 to 69. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph after midnight.

Monday: Sunny. Highs around 85. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

North Shore

Today: Sunny with slight chance of showers in the morning, then partly sunny with chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 46 to 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs around 83. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming clear. Lows around 65. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 81 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

East Maui

Today: Sunny with slight chance of showers in the morning, then partly sunny with chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 46 to 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 78. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 60. Light winds.

Monday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 78. Light winds.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Highs 66 to 84. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 53 to 70. East winds up to 10 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 66 to 85. East winds up to 10 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate trade winds will will hold around the Big Island for the next couple of days, while a nearby surface ridge produces lighter and at times variable winds across the rest of the state. Very stable and rather dry conditions will continue. Stronger trade winds are due during the middle of next week, possibly pushing a dissipating front over the islands that could increase mainly windward rainfall.

Discussion

Dry, stable, and somewhat stagnant conditions prevail over most the state to start the new year. A surface ridge stalled about 125 miles north of Kauai is maintaining gentle to moderate trade winds around the Big Island and east Maui, and weaker east to southeast winds across the rest of the state have been overpowered by light land breezes. A robust ridge aloft overhead is producing very stable conditions with an inversion based between 4,500 and 5,500 ft, and low level moisture is limited. As a result, most areas have been dry overnight, while a few light showers have been observed over windward Big Island.
Little change is due for the rest of the holiday weekend. Best chances for isolated light showers will be across windward areas, though daytime sea breezes will generate clouds and a slight chance of showers across leeward terrain each afternoon.
The background winds will shift out of the north on Tuesday as a surface high racing across the Pacific along 32N nears our longitude. Ridging aloft will hold, keeping stable conditions in place and maintaining rather dry weather as a front approaches.
Tuesday night into Thursday, the surface high will pass north of the islands, bringing a brief shot of moderate to breezy trade winds and pushing the shallow and weak front over the islands. The ridge aloft will maintain stability and help focus rainfall over windward slopes, with minimal showers expected for leeward areas. The GFS and ECMWF still differ on the details, but expect the shallow front to reach Kauai late Tuesday, drift to the central portion of the island chain Wednesday, and dissipate near the eastern end of the state Thursday.
Stable and somewhat dry trade wind weather is favored by Friday, followed by a potential disruption of the trade winds next Sunday.

Aviation

A weak surface ridge north of the state will maintain light to locally moderate east to southeast winds across the islands. This will allow local afternoon sea breeze and nighttime land breeze circulations to develop across sheltered leeward sections of most of the islands through early Monday. Stable and dry atmospheric conditions across the region will continue to limit the coverage of showers during the next couple of days. Some low clouds and light showers moving into windward sections may cause brief periods of MVFR ceilings. In addition, cloudiness may increase over some leeward areas after the sea breezes form later today. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail through early Monday morning.

Marine

A ridge of high pressure just north of the state will produce light east or variable breezes around Kauai, with gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the remainder of the state, through the day. The slight northward movement of this ridge Monday will allow for more areawide moderate east trades. The tail end of a cold front will pass through late Tuesday with high pressure filling in behind the boundary Wednesday. Veering mid week winds will strengthen, moderate to locally fresh north northeast winds, as a result of the tighter pressure gradient south of the high. There will be a higher probability for more shower activity Tuesday and Wednesday in association with the weak frontal passage.
The ongoing moderate size, medium period west northwest swell that peaked Friday will be slowly declining through the day. A fetch of gale force winds far northwest of the islands has generated a large, long period west northwest (310-320 degree) swell. This swell will begin to fill in around the islands later today and peak surf at XL warning levels along many north and west-facing shores Monday. This swell will slowly decline through the middle of the week. Weak trade flow and small background south swell will equate to small surf along east and south-facing shores through the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov