Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 77 to 82. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows 65 to 72. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 76 to 82. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84. Light winds becoming west around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 63 to 71. Light winds.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 74 to 83 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows around 67 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 75 to 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 63 to 68. Light winds.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 74 to 83 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows around 67 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 75 to 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 72 to 78. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows around 64. Light winds.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 71 to 77. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 69 to 84. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows 57 to 71. Light winds.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 83. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Land and sea breezes will continue over the smaller islands through Thursday afternoon. The chance for afternoon showers across island interiors will increase each day. Isolated thunderstorms are possible around Kauai as well as across portions of the Big Island Thursday and Friday as an upper trough moves by. Moderate trade winds may return early next week.

Discussion

There is no change in forecast philosophy from last evening. A weak surface trough northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands has put a dent in the subtropical ridge which normally drives trade wind flow across the state. As a result, the pressure gradient across the islands is rather slack and winds are light enough to allow local land and sea breeze development. Our airmass remains rather dry and stable this morning, limiting shower development. Radar shows very little shower activity, with only light isolated showers noted across southeast sections of the Big Island. Satellite loop shows scattered low clouds to clear skies almost everywhere outside showery areas. A large area of broken stable low clouds persists over leeward waters west of the Big Island. Except for a bit more moisture moving in to fuel afternoon cloud cover and showers, expect the current pattern to continue into Thursday.
Models show deepening southwesterly flow aloft Thursday and Friday in response to a shortwave trough advancing through the area. This will push the weak surface trough northwest of the state closer to the islands where it will stall near Kauai. Associated prefrontal moisture will provide fuel for increased shower coverage and intensity. Winds will remain light through Thursday as southeasterlies persist but are blocked by the Big Island. Interior showers should get a boost Thursday afternoon as southwesterly flow aloft and height falls associated with the advancing shortwave trough destabilize our airmass. Thunderstorms are possible across leeward and interior portions of the Big Island Thursday and Friday afternoon, with the better chance being on Friday. Thunderstorms are also possible on and around Kauai, where deeper moisture will reside on Thursday night. Elsewhere, land breezes will maintain quiet conditions overnight Thursday. Models show southerly flow at the surface by late Friday with stability already on the rebound as the upper trough departs. This increased stability will begin to cap shower potential during this time, but increased showers may still occur over leeward portions of Oahu and Kauai Friday night and, for Kauai, Saturday as well. Expect moderate trades to return by Monday, focusing clouds and showers over windward and mauka areas.

Aviation

A weak surface ridge just north of the area will maintain a light southeast wind flow today. Mostly sunny skies (VFR conditions) this morning will transition to sea breezes late morning with low clouds and light showers developing this afternoon over island interiors. Some of these clouds may result in brief mountain obscurations. An area of moisture south of Hawaii will lift northwest and potentially impact the western end of the state this evening and tonight. No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

No significant changes to the marine forecast with the morning package, and no change in the forecast philosophy. Weak high pressure will remain in place near the islands over the next several days. Meanwhile, a couple weak frontal boundaries will clip the northern offshore waters, before a stronger front approaches the northwest offshore waters Friday, and pushes through the northern offshore waters over the weekend. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible over the northern offshore waters as these boundaries move through. There is a chance for some thunderstorms entering the coastal waters Thursday night and Friday with these initial weaker boundaries. Details still to be determined about the threat for thunderstorms in the coastal waters this weekend.
Ahead of these boundaries the background flow is from the east- southeast. Winds will be light and variable over the waters near Kauai and Oahu, and a touch stronger out of the east-southeast over the waters near Maui County and the Big Island. Little change is expected in the winds until Friday when the winds will increase a bit out of the southeast across the coastal waters. Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are forecast to develop ahead of an approaching front Friday and Saturday, with light to moderate trades potentially filling back in Sunday into early next week as the front dissipates and a new area of high pressure builds north of the island chain. Winds and seas are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds through at least Saturday.
The current moderate northwest swell will continue to slowly decline today. A couple new reinforcing northwest swells are expected today and tomorrow, which should maintain moderate surf along north facing shores. A larger northwest swell should bring another round of advisory level surf to north and west facing shores on Friday, with a dip below advisory levels forecast for Saturday. A much larger northwest swell is expected Sunday through Monday with surf heights well above warning thresholds and possibly approaching over 40 feet during its peak along north facing exposures of the smaller islands. At this time, surf looks to peak Sunday afternoon through Sunday night and with the combination of the high tides from the new moon, we could see coastal impacts with waves washing across roads near the shorelines during the early morning high tide Sunday night.
Background south swell energy is expected through the weekend. A new small long-period south swell could give south shore surf a minor boost early next week. Surf along east facing shores will remain small due to the lack of trade winds over and upstream of the islands.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov