Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 85. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 72. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 85. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

South Side

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86. Light winds becoming southwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 63 to 69. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny in the morning, then cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 62 to 72. Light winds becoming south around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny in the morning, then cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87. South winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 51 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows 42 to 53. Light winds.

Sunday: Partly sunny in the morning, then cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 51 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 77. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 62. Light winds.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 77. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 83. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 69. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 83. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light southerly winds with mostly dry conditions will persist through the weekend. High clouds associated with a lingering frontal boundary nearby to the north along with an approaching upper disturbance may lead to periods of cloudy conditions, especially over the western end of the state. Rain chances may increase through the first half of next week as deep low pressure develops to the west.

Discussion

The persistent pattern featuring a stationary frontal boundary lingering nearby to the north and a ridge meandering over the islands will keep the light southerly flow in place through the weekend. With the deep moisture axis north of the area over and around the frontal boundary, expect showers to remain limited this weekend. Any showers that do form will favor interior/south and southwest facing slopes through the afternoons where sea breezes form – best chance for accumulations being over the western end of the state closer to the deep moisture axis and better instability.
An upper low will cutoff west of the state Sunday and induce a surface low to the west. This will lift the front northward while high pressure builds far northeast of the area. Southeast flow will strengthen early next week in response and begin to push moisture over the islands that will continue for much of next week. There are some model differences in response to various positions in where the low pressure sets up to the west, with the GFS placing the feature closer to the islands and bringing more rainfall across the state and the ECMWF keeping most of the activity farther west. A blend of the available sources of guidance does support a hybrid-like pattern with east-southeast flow along with increasing moisture expanding eastward across the state Monday through midweek. Guidance shows this feature to the west lifting northeastward and phasing with the northern stream late in the week, which could allow for the local pattern to transition back toward a typical trade wind setup by the end of next weekend.

Aviation

Mostly clear skies and scant showers will prevail today and tonight. A front passing north of the main Hawaiian islands will spread scattered high clouds over the islands from time to time. Light to moderate southerly to southeasterly flow will prevail through the forecast period. Expect isolated showers near Kauai through this morning. VFR conditions are expected statewide, and no AIRMETs are expected today.

Marine

A high pressure surface ridge over the Hawaiian Islands and a weakening stationary front northwest of Kauai will keep mostly stable weather conditions and light to gentle southerly winds in the forecast through the weekend. Shower activity will begin to increase over the islands of Kauai and Oahu early next week as a low pressure system develops northwest of the state.
Seas and surf will remain on the small side today. A medium period north (340-360) swell will build Sunday and peak Monday, boosting surf heights along north facing shores. For the south facing shores, a small long period swell will build Monday, producing near head high surf by Tuesday, and then slowly fade into Wednesday.
East swell energy will get into the action from Wednesday onward building surf heights along east facing shores as a large east to west 15 to 25 kt fetch area sets up just east of the island chain.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov