Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers early in the morning. Highs 83 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 69 to 76. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 83 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 87 to 92. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 70. North winds up to 15 mph.

Friday: Sunny. Highs 87 to 92. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 63 to 68 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 68 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 63 to 68 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 76 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 68. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 76 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs 81 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 64 to 75. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 81 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy easterly trades will continue through Friday, then ease slightly over the weekend as the ridge to the north weakens and an upper disturbance moves over the region. Expect mostly dry conditions to prevail, with the best chance for showers overnight through the mornings across windward and mauka locations. A slight increase in windward shower coverage will be possible this weekend as the upper disturbance moves over the state.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement and depicts the breezy easterly trades holding into Friday as high pressure remains anchored north-northeast of the area. Outside of a few pockets of low-level moisture moving through periodically enhancing overnight shower coverage, expect the stable and dry conditions to prevail. Most of the showers that do form will remain confined to windward/mauka locations, with very few expected to make it over our parched leeward locations. The exception will be over the typical leeward areas of the Big Island through the afternoon hours, where sea breezes may be enough to trigger a few showers.
A subtle transition is anticipated this weekend in response to a mid-to-upper trough moving into the area. This combined with a weakness forming within the surface ridge to the north will potentially support better windward shower coverage and lighter trades. A slight increase in the inversion height could allow a few of these showers to spread into leeward areas of the smaller islands during the overnight periods. Guidance depicts this pattern persisting into early next week, followed by a return of drier air associated with rising upper heights and breezy trades Tuesday through midweek.

Aviation

Breezy trade winds will continue through the next 24 hours. Doppler radar continues to show scattered showers moving into the windward portions of the Hawaiian Islands early this morning, with a few isolated showers making it over the mountain ridges into some leeward locations. Lower clouds and showers will continue to favor windward and mauka areas, particularly during the overnight to early morning hours. Expect mainly VFR conditions with brief MVFR conditions possible under passing showers.
AIRMET Tango will likely remain in effect for moderate lee turbulence through Friday. The potential for low-level turbulence will lower over the weekend as the trades weaken slightly.

Marine

High pressure north-northeast of the state will keep fresh to locally strong trade winds blowing through Friday, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island. The trades may ease just below SCA thresholds Saturday through Monday as the high north- northeast of the state weakens. Long range guidance shows the high strengthening to the distant northeast Tuesday through the middle of next week, ramping trades back up into the fresh to locally strong range once again.
A medium period east swell generated by former tropical cyclone Hilary continues to move through islands early this morning, with energy centered around the 13 second band. This swell will gradually fade today through Friday, but when combined with the easterly trade wind swell, east shore surf should hold near or just below the summertime average. The easing trades over the weekend through Monday will lower surf along east facing shores below normal levels. East shore surf will then trend back up closer to the summertime average by the middle of next week as the trades strengthen once again.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small through Monday, with mainly background southerly swells moving through. A slight bump in south shore surf is possible Tuesday through the middle of next week, as a small medium period south swell moves through.
North shore surf will remain flat through the weekend. A small medium period northwest swell could give surf along north and west facing shores a slight boost Monday and Tuesday, before fading out during the middle of next week.

Fire weather

There remains an elevated fire danger threat today due to a combination of the very dry fuels and breezy trades. Although the winds are not expected to exceed the critical levels required for a warning, any fire that starts could become difficult to control. The threat should lower Friday through Monday as the winds ease slightly.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov