Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 90. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 69 to 76. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 90. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 87 to 92. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 70. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 87 to 92. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 63 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 74. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 86 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 63 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 64 to 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 85. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 68. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 85. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 91. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 75. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 91. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will ease slightly through the weekend as the driving high to the north weakens. Expect clouds and showers to favor windward and mauka locations at night and during early morning hours, with some showers spilling over to leeward areas. Shower and cloud coverage may increase slightly over the next couple of days as an upper disturbance moves over the state.

Discussion

High pressure persists far north of the main Hawaiian Islands. However, upper troughing has put a damper on the effect this high has on local trade wind strength. While a Small Craft Advisory remains for the Alenuihaha Channel this morning, only moderate trade winds dominate elsewhere. Current radar and satellite loops show scattered to broken low clouds, with moderate to locally heavy showers, riding in with the trades near the smaller islands. These will favor windward areas there. Cloud cover is more pervasive around and across the Big Island, where broken to overcast low clouds across windward shores and slopes wrap around to Kona and Kau shores and slopes. Inversion heights from overnight soundings were around 8400 feet, enhancing showers and increasing shower coverage to include some leeward areas.
An upper trough will destabilize our airmass a bit this weekend. This, combined with the high weakening to our north, may trigger a subtle increase in windward cloud and shower coverage. Trade winds, already a bit weaker than yesterday, may decrease a bit more through Sunday. Models show this pattern persisting into early next week, followed by a return of drier air and strengthening easterly trades Tuesday through midweek as the high rebuilds north- northeast of the state.

Aviation

Moderate trade flow, along with a raised inversion height of 8 to 9 kft, will lead to scattered/numerous moderate to occasionally heavy showers over windward portions of the islands this morning. Isolated showers will likely continue to spill onto leeward locations. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility may accompany some of the more robust showers.
Shower activity is forecast to decrease slightly by late this morning and into the afternoon.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

High pressure north-northeast of the state will keep moderate to fresh trades through the weekend. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) only includes the Alenuihaha Channel through this afternoon. Guidance shows high pressure restrengthening to the distant northeast Tuesday through the middle of next week, bringing trades back up into the fresh to locally strong range.
North and west shores remain flat through today with a small bump filling in Sunday evening through early next week as a small medium period northwest swell traverses area waters. The northwest swell will then fade out during the middle of next week.
Surf along east facing shores will remain tiny through early next week as local winds weaken slightly. Surf then trends up toward the summer average by the middle of next week as trades restrengthen.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small through Monday, with mainly background southerly swells moving through. This will be followed by a modest bump mid-week as medium-sized, long-period energy reaches the area.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Alenuihaha Channel.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov