Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 90. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 75. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 83 to 90. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 87 to 92. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 69. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Friday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 87 to 92. North winds up to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 90. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 67 at the visitor center to around 64 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 52 at the visitor center to around 50 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 61 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 69. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A ridge of high pressure north of the state will keep moderate trade winds in place during the next few days with localized sea breezes developing each afternoon in the more sheltered leeward areas. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a few showers reaching leeward communities at times. A few showers may develop each afternoon over interior and leeward sections of the islands with the assistance of the sea breezes. The trades will increase back into the moderate to locally breezy range Sunday through the middle of next week, with a slightly more showery than normal trade wind pattern continuing through much of the period. Some heavier showers are possible as the the remnant trough of what is now Invest 94E passes by south of the state around the middle of next week.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1023 mb high is centered around 1300 miles northeast of Honolulu, while the remnant trough of former tropical cyclone Jova is located around 750 miles east of Hilo. The gradient across the state continue to produce moderate trade winds early this morning, with land breezes present in some of the more sheltered leeward areas. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy conditions over windward and mauka locales, with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions in most leeward areas. Radar imagery shows scattered to numerous showers moving into windward portions of the islands, with some of these showers spilling over into leeward communities. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances and trade wind trends during the next few days.
High pressure ridging north of the islands will keep a generally moderate trade wind flow in place during the next few days, with localized sea breezes expected in the more sheltered leeward areas each day. The trades may be slightly weaker Friday through Saturday as the remnant trough of former tropical cyclone Jova moves from east to west over or just north of the state. The trades should restrengthen Saturday night and Sunday, with moderate to locally breezy conditions then expected late Sunday through the middle of next week.
As for the remaining forecast details, several bands of enhanced moisture will keep a more showery trade wind pattern in place during the next several days as they move through the islands. The showers will favor windward slopes and coasts, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a few of these showers reaching leeward areas at times as well. Windward shower coverage should decrease and leeward shower coverage should increase with the assistance of localized sea breezes each afternoon. We should see a brief window with drier trades move from east to west through the state Sunday into Sunday night as the remnant trough of former tropical cyclone Jova shifts west of the islands. A return to a more showery trade wind pattern appears in store later Sunday night through the middle of next week with the potential for some heavier showers as the the remnant trough of what is now Invest 94E passes by south of the state around the middle of next week.

Aviation

Moderate trade winds will persist through the next 24 hours and allow for local land/sea breezes to develop in sheltered leeward areas. Clouds and showers will generally favor windward and mauka areas and will be slightly greater in coverage during the overnight through mid morning hours. Showers will also be possible for leeward areas in the afternoon with any sea breeze development. Periods of MVFR conditions in the heavier showers can be expected.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration across windward sections of the Big Island, Maui and Molokai. This AIRMET will likely remain in place through much of the morning and may need to be expanded to include windward sections of some of the other islands later this morning.

Marine

A weakening high pressure ridge far north of the state will keep gentle to moderate trade winds in the forecast into the weekend. A remnant trough of former Tropical Cyclone Jova will move through the islands this weekend bringing an increase in shower activity as it moves through. Trade wind speed trends will increase from Sunday into Monday as the remnants of Jova pass to the west of the state.
A relatively small, medium period east (080-090 degree) swell that originated from former Tropical Cyclone Jova will diminish today. The declining east swell combined with the weakening winds should result in east shore surf below the seasonal average into the weekend.
For the south shores, a small, medium period south (180-190 degree) swell will diminish today. Another small long period south swell is currently passing through American Samoa with a swell height peaking around 6 feet at the buoy. This swell will arrive in Hawaii by early Saturday morning, with swell energy peaking on Sunday, and then slowly decreasing into next week. No significant swells are expected to affect the north and west facing shores through the forecast period.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov