Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 82 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 69 to 76. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 81 to 90. East winds up to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 92. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Clear. Lows 69 to 77. North winds up to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 90. North winds up to 10 mph increasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 78 to 86 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 84 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Clear and breezy. Lows 69 to 74. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 84 to 90. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 78 to 86 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 75 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Clear and breezy. Lows 65 to 70. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 71 to 92. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Clear and breezy. Lows 59 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 70 to 92. East winds up to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will deliver passing clouds and showers through today, mainly to windward and mauka areas. Winds will become light Monday through the week, with overall drier conditions and limited showers over interior areas during each afternoon.

Discussion

A high pressure ridge north and northeast of Hawaii will continue to drive breezy trades today. A fairly typical and relatively benign trade wind weather pattern remains in place today. This morning sounding looks relatively more stable than the sounding yesterday, and precipitable water measurements have also declined slightly more towards normal. Satellite imagery show isolated thunderstorms have stayed just northwest of the coastal water region overnight. Radar imagery show clouds and scattered showers embedded in the tradewind flow and focusing along windward and mauka areas with dry and mostly clear conditions along leeward areas.
Trade wind speeds will slowly diminish today and tonight as a surface low pressure system to the distant northwest moves east and weakens the ridge. A weakening front associated with the low will draw closer to the islands and the surface ridge will move over the islands. A mid- level ridge will also build over the area from the west starting Monday, further contributing to a mostly dry, light wind pattern through the first half of next week. Some interior and upslope clouds may develop in response to daytime heating, but little in the way of rainfall is expected, with mostly clear nights and mornings.
Depending on the evolution of the parent low north of the islands, the weakening front may move over the western portion of the state during the second half of the week. However, there is still considerable differences with timing with model guidance. Either way, the recent persistent trade wind flow will have an extended absence.

Aviation

Moderate to breezy trade winds will gradually trend weaker later today, but should stay predominate with land/sea breezes not expected until Monday or Tuesday. Clouds and showers will primarily focus on the windward and mountain areas, with the greatest coverage and intensity during the overnight through early morning hours. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility will be possible with any of the heavier showers.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for tempo moderate turbulence below 9000 feet for areas downwind (south through west) of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely remain in effect through mid day and then conditions should begin to improve during the afternoon or evening hours.

Marine

A high far north-northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands will continue to drive moderate to locally strong trades across coastal waters through today. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typical windier waters near Maui County and the Big Island has been extended through tonight. By Monday, a low far to the northwest will push the ridge south, causing winds to weaken. Weaker winds will persist through much of the new week. An upper low continues to generate thunderstorms over the northern offshore waters which may recur over the next several days.
A medium period northwest swell is expected to arrive today, peak tonight and Monday, then slowly subside Tuesday. A slightly larger northwest medium period swell will arrive late Tuesday, then persist through Thursday. Trade winds near and upstream of the islands will continue to bring short period, choppy surf to east facing shores through today, but expect this to drop off Monday as winds weaken. A series of background southerly swells will continue over the next several days. A small long period south swell will arrive Monday night and linger into Thursday. Another small long period south swell will arrive Friday. A slightly larger medium period southeast swell arriving at the same time as the first long period south swell will help boost surf along south facing shores.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov