Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 89. Light winds becoming southeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 73. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 84 to 89. East winds up to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 89. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 69. North winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 89. North winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 67 to 72. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 80. Light winds becoming north up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 68. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 88. Light winds becoming east up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 61 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 75 to 86. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A trough of low pressure west of Kauai will slowly shift west today, allowing a gradual return of moderate trade winds from east to west across the state. Rather dry conditions will prevail, with a few showers moving into windward areas this morning and developing over interior and leeward areas this afternoon. Drier than normal conditions and moderate trade winds should then prevail tonight through late next week, with mainly windward and mauka showers and very little shower activity reaching leeward communities.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a trough of low pressure is located west of Kauai, with a 1021 mb high around 1050 miles northwest of Kauai, and a southwest to northeast oriented ridge axis extending over the central islands. Light winds prevail over Kauai where land breezes are present, light trades remain in place over Oahu, while moderate trades prevail in the unsheltered sections of Maui County and the Big Island. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy skies in most areas. Radar imagery shows a few showers moving into windward sections of Maui and the Big Island, a couple showers along the leeward Kohala coast, with very little shower activity over the rest of the state. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances and the returning trade winds.
The trough of low pressure will retrograde slowly westward today, allowing trade winds to strengthen to moderate levels from east to west across the state. Moderate trade winds should then prevail tonight through Tuesday with only minor fluctuations in strength from day to day. The trades should ease again around the middle to latter part of next week as a new front approaches from the north.
As for the remaining weather details, a more typical, yet drier than normal, trade wind pattern can be expected today, with a few showers moving into windward and mauka areas. Localized sea breezes will also bring the potential for a few leeward and interior showers this afternoon. Rather dry trade wind weather will then prevail Friday night through late next week, with mainly windward and mauka showers and very little shower activity reaching leeward communities.

Aviation

A surface trough near Kauai moving slowly west will keep a few clouds and showers near Kauai this morning. Winds will remain light with local land/seabreezes today into tonight. Trade winds will gradually return today into tonight but remain light over the western islands. Clouds and showers will build in the afternoon over the interior portions of the islands and then shift to the windward and mountain areas as the trade winds fill in.
No AIRMETS are currently in effect, nor anticipated at this time.

Marine

Building moderate east to southeast winds will fill through the local waters today. High pressure north of the islands will track eastward and winds will back to a more typical trade wind direction out of the east by this evening. Moderate to locally fresh trades then continue into next week.
The latest guidance and trends at NDBC Buoy 51000 suggest that the surf has transitioned to a more northerly direction and will fall off rather quickly through the day for north facing shores.
A small long period southwest swell will build late today into the weekend maintaining small surf along south-facing shores. East facing shores will remain small until trades return this weekend, but as this northwesterly swell clocks more north, exposed shorelines on the east sides will see swell energy wrap through today.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov