Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 69 to 75. East winds up to 20 mph.

Friday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 87. Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 65 to 75. North winds up to 10 mph.

Friday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 87. Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast up to 20 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 83 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 66 to 71. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Friday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 86. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 48 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 66. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 58 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Friday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 71 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate east to southeast winds will continue today. Modest showers will remain largely confined to windward slopes, while clouds and a few showers will develop over interior and leeward areas mainly in the afternoon. Trade winds will shift out of a more typical easterly direction on Friday and hold into the weekend. Trades will strengthen Sunday and early next week.

Discussion

The combination of broad high pressure far north of the state and a surface trough located roughly 500 miles northwest of Kauai will maintain moderate east to east-southeast winds today. Under this flow Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai will remain somewhat blocked from the prevailing winds by the Big Island and Maui, resulting in a more widespread afternoon sea breezes across the western half of the island chain. Moisture will remain somewhat limited, and ridging aloft will keep stable conditions in place. Modest rainfall will be focused along windward slopes, and the combination of sea breezes and convergent plumes will generate clouds and a few showers over leeward areas.
Winds will shift back to a more typical easterly direction on Friday as the nearby surface trough moves away from the islands and broad high pressure holds north of the state. A pocket of moisture is expected to move in on the trades as early as Friday night and pass over the western end of the island chain Saturday, bringing an increase in mainly windward showers. A weak shortwave aloft will move over the state during this time and could trigger a few heavy showers, especially over windward Oahu and Kauai.
Trade winds are expected to increase as early as Sunday, though more significantly late Monday and Tuesday as an exceptionally strong surface high of around 1040 mb develops far north of the region. This high will push a shear line or shallow front over the islands during the surge of trades sometime late Monday or Tuesday, leading to a period of increased windward rainfall. Breezy to locally windy trades and somewhat cool and dry conditions are possible for the middle of next week.

Aviation

East to southeast winds in the moderate to locally breezy range will prevail today and slightly shift more easterly tonight. Clouds and a few showers will be pushed over the east and southeast slopes of the islands. Brief MVFR conditions will be possible in the showers but overall VFR conditions are expected.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect and none are expected.

Marine

A low pressure system northwest of the Hawaiian Islands and a high pressure ridge north of the state will produce fresh to strong east to southeast winds today. The low will drift westward away from the islands through Friday with more easterly trade winds building back into the Hawaii Region. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for winds over exposed waters around Maui and the Big Island through tonight, and will likely continue over some of these windier areas into the weekend.
A medium period northwest (320 degree) swell energy will boost surf heights along north and west facing shores today and tonight. Overlapping medium period north (350 degree) swell and long period north-northwest (330 degree) swell energy will move into the region early Friday morning and late Saturday respectively. These swells will keep surf heights elevated along north and west facing shores at least into Sunday.
Surf along east facing shores will stay choppy as trade winds build back into the region. Small long period south swells will continue to keep surf along south facing shores from going flat through much of next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Maui County Windward Waters, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov