NOAA Outlook: Moderate Drought to persist on Maui over the next three months

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its latest seasonal drought outlook for December 21, 2023 – March 31, 2024, showing where drought is expected to improve, worsen, or remain the same over the next 3 months:

Maui County, Hawaii is currently in Moderate Drought (D1), according to the US Drought Monitor, and conditions are expected to persist over the next three months.
View More Wailuku Drought Information

Temperatures across Hawaiʻi this week were mostly a degree or two below normal, with a few local exceptions, according to the US Drought Monitor. Abnormal dryness expanded across the rest of southern Kauaʻi this week after dry weather in the Līhuʻe area continued. On Oʻahu, a wet trade wind pattern continued, leading to improving conditions in the northeast facing half of the island.

On Molokaʻi, improvements occurred in the west owing to the wet trade wind pattern. On Maui, recent rainfall led to lessening severe drought coverage in the central valley area. Elsewhere, conditions remained the same.

On the Big Island, conditions locally improved or degraded, based on stock pond reports and recent rainfall.

Drought persistence is favored for the Hawaiian Islands, with development also favored in regions experiencing abnormal dryness (D0, as depicted in the US Drought Monitor).

“Antecedent dryness coupled with dry seasonal precipitation signals support this persistence and development forecast. Additionally, despite it being a wet time of year, El Niño conditions typically result in a drier than normal wet season, further supporting the degradation of conditions,” according to NOAA.