Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 70 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 60 to 68. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 71 to 80. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 79. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 58 to 67. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs around 79. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 72 to 77 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 41 to 47 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 73 to 79 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 78. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 59 to 64. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 77 to 82. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 43 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 72 to 77 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 41 to 47 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 73 to 79 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 66 to 73. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 57 to 62. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 67 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 61 to 80. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 51 to 67. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 62 to 81. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A relatively dry and stable trade wind pattern will persist over the next several days, with cool and breezy northeast to east trade winds and limited showers favoring windward and mauka locations. After a brief decrease in wind speeds mid-week, winds may restrengthen, along with an increase in showers late this week into the weekend.

Discussion

Surface high pressure remains centered around 700 miles north of Kauai this morning, with breezy to locally windy northeast trade winds across state. Meanwhile, the drier and stable air mass now appears to be in place state-wide, with precipitable water (PW) values now below one inch at both Lihue and Hilo (below normal for the month of February) and strong temperature inversions around 6500-7500 feet.
The surface high will gradually move east and a bit southward over the next few days, resulting in a slight weakening of the trade winds as they shift out of a more easterly direction through the first half of the week. As the high approaches closer to the islands, the stable and dry airmass will be reinforced. Dewpoints in the 40s and 50s will continue to make it feel rather cool, while trade showers will be shallow with minimal rainfall amounts focused mostly along windward and mauka areas.
However, model guidance appears to agree on a surface trough developing just northwest of the islands Thursday and Friday. This would result in a restrengthening of winds during the second half of the week as they veer more southeasterly. Variability remains in how close the surface trough and associated front get to the islands, though an increase in windward showers is likely towards the end of the week into the weekend, regardless, as moisture is pulled up from the south ahead of this system.

Aviation

Breezy to locally windy trade winds will continue today with low clouds and isolated showers favoring windward and mauka areas. Northeast winds will become more easterly and weaken slightly as the surface high moves eastward. Expect VFR conditions to prevail with brief periods of MVFR possible with any showers.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect statewide due to occasional moderate turbulence downwind of higher terrain. This AIRMET will likely be needed through the morning before turbulence decreases heading into the afternoon or evening.

Marine

A large, medium period north (340 to 360 degrees) swell will continue to gradually decline over the next couple of days as it shifts out of the north-northeast (360 to 020 degrees). Offshore buoys NDBC 51101 and 51001 have steadily declined over night resulting in the High Surf Advisory (HSA) to be cancelled. Surf heights this morning will be just under the HSA criteria and slowly declining through the day. Due to the northerly direction of the swell, Kahului and Hilo Harbors should experience surges, even though the swell will be declining today. Local nearshore PacIOOS Pauwela buoy 51205 observations suggest the swell will maintain the hazard. A Marine Weather Statement remains posted to highlight this concern through today.
A moderate, long period northwest swell will begin to fill in late tonight and hold through Wednesday, with peak surf below HSA levels. Guidance hints for reinforcements of similar size to hold through the week from the northwest. East facing shores will remain choppy and may see some wrapping north swell through the first half of the week for exposed shorelines. Moderate, short period wind swell will stick around through the work week. South shores will remain seasonably small.
Surface high pressure far north of the state will drift east over the next several days as fresh to near gale force winds will shift more easterly today. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for all waters has been extended through today due to a combination of the gusty winds and elevated seas, driven mainly by the large north swell. As the north swell subsides today, the SCA may be trimmed back to the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui this afternoon. Winds will drop a notch late tonight into early Wednesday as the high weakens northeast of the islands, but the combination of another high building far north of the islands and low pressure developing far to the west will likely bring increasing east to east-southeast fresh to locally near gale force winds by late Wednesday and Thursday. Expect the fresh to strong trades to hold into next weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all Hawaiian waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov