Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 69. East winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 80. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 82. Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 69. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows around 66 near the shore to 44 to 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 77 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Highs 79 to 84. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 30 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 66. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 64 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 40 to 51. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 62 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows around 66 near the shore to 44 to 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 77 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 77. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 58 to 63. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 74. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 63 to 83. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 53 to 69. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 61 to 81. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will prevail into next week, favoring an east-southeast direction through Friday. Winds will strengthen over the weekend, then remain breezy next week. Clouds and showers will favor windward areas, but some will occasionally spread to leeward areas of the smaller islands.

Discussion

A dry and stable mid-level airmass is entrenched over the islands at press time. This airmass is supported by a mid-level ridge that will gradually erode during the next 24 hours or so as a zonally oriented 90 kt jet snakes its way eastward. In the meantime, high stability characterized by a strong subsidence inversion anchored around 7.5kft will prevail. Rather moist ESE boundary layer winds with surface dewpoints in the mid 60s will facilitate a healthy shower coverage over windward and mauka zones, but high stability will maintain a firm cap on shower depth and intensity.
A couple bands of showers positioned east of the islands, one associated with a remnant cold frontal boundary, will sweep through the area Friday evening through Saturday. This will bring an increase in shower coverage to windward, mauka, and possibly even some leeward areas mainly overnight and during the early morning. Weakly cyclonic flow along the northern periphery of the resident upper jet will maintain weakly stable conditions heading into next week. A somewhat drier airmass will fill in behind the aforementioned remnant frontal zone on Saturday (dewpoints around 60). Nonetheless, cooler temperatures aloft (around 850mb) will foster relatively steep boundary layer lapse rates conducive for shallow shower production. Such showers will be modulated by the typical diurnal trend and will be embedded within continued widespread breezy trade winds at the surface. Breezy trades are then modeled to continue for the balance of next week.

Aviation

Locally breezy trade winds are expected today and throughout the next several days. Latest infrared satellite imagery shows that broken to overcast stratocumulus clouds continue to stream across portions of the state, particularly the western islands. A few light trade wind showers will be possible along coasts throughout the next 24 hours and beyond. Meanwhile, leeward sea breezes will support cumulus development along west facing slopes and coasts in the afternoon and evening hours. A strong inversion aloft will inhibit vertical cloud development, however, so any showers that do develop should be light in intensity.
Isolated MVFR conditions will be possible at times within showers, but in general, VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail at most locations. The current AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration along windward sections of the Big Island will likely be able to be dropped later this morning. AIRMET Tango may be needed for moderate low-level turbulence later today as surface wind speeds increase a bit.

Marine

Fresh to strong east-southeast trades will continue today, then shift out of the east and become strong for most waters over the weekend through early next week. The Small Craft Advisory has been expanded to most Hawaiian waters, which will continue through the weekend.
Surf along north and west facing shores will gradually ease today as a medium-period northwest swell begins to move out. An upward trend is expected over the weekend as a fresh, long- period north-northwest swell arrives late tonight, then builds down the island chain through the day Saturday. This swell will peak late Saturday through Saturday night, likely driving the surf along exposed coasts to the advisory thresholds. A slow downward trend is expected by late Sunday.
Surf along exposed north and east facing shores will trend up early next week as a medium-period north-northeast swell arrives. Surf heights will likely reach the advisory levels as this swell peaks Monday through Tuesday (potentially near the warning level for east facing shores). Otherwise, short-period/rough surf is anticipated along exposed eastern shores due to the strong trades locally and upstream.
Surf along south facing shores will potentially trend up late next week as we move into March due to a long-period south swell arriving.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maui County Windward Waters, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov