Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 76 to 90. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 73. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 76 to 90. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 88. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 65 to 70. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 88. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 68 to 74 near the shore to 51 to 56 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 68. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 81 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Highs 53 to 71. East winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 52 to 71. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 68 to 74 near the shore to 51 to 56 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 79. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 60 to 67. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 79. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 67 to 87. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 56 to 73. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 66 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

The low pressure system far north of the state will continue to drift slowly northward over the next few days. The high pressure ridge will build in north of the state as the low drifts away from the island chain. Expect moderate to locally breezy east to east- southeast winds over most islands through Wednesday, wind directions will be modified by local scale daytime sea breezes over terrain sheltered areas of each island. Brief passing showers will mainly drift over windward and mountain areas in the evening through early morning hours. A low level disturbance will move westward through the islands from Tuesday night through Thursday morning enhancing shower activity from east to west across the state.

Discussion

Satellite imagery this morning shows a band of middle and high clouds drifting east of the Big Island. Upper air balloon soundings from 2 AM HST at Lihue and Hilo show subsidence temperature inversion heights around 5,000 feet above sea level. At these low inversion heights the air mass remains fairly stable and tends to cap vertical cloud development due to strong subsidence. Decreasing clouds and showers will likely continue into Tuesday afternoon for most islands.
The low pressure system far north of the state will continue to drift slowly northward over the next few days. The high pressure ridge will build in north of the state as the low drifts away from the island chain. Expect moderate to locally breezy east to east- southeast winds over most islands through Wednesday, wind directions will be modified by local scale daytime sea breezes over terrain sheltered areas of each island. Clouds will build over island interior sections with limited shower activity for most islands through Tuesday.
Tuesday night into Thursday morning…A low level easterly wave, shown on satellite imagery east of the Big Island around 148W longitude and the GFS 700 MB streamlines, will move into the eastern islands of Maui and the Big Island late Tuesday. This trough will increase inversion heights and allow deeper clouds and higher shower trends to develop over the eastern slopes of both islands. By Wednesday this trough moves into the central islands spreading increasing cloud and shower trends to windward and mountain areas statewide. By Thursday morning easterly trade winds spread to all islands and the instability from this low level trough enhances trade wind showers over the windward and mountain slopes of the western islands.
Thursday afternoon through Sunday…Moderate to locally breezy trade winds remain in the forecast with broad upper level troughing will keep passing showers mainly during the overnight to early morning hours favoring windward and mountain areas.

Aviation

Light to moderate east to southeast winds will persist through the 24-Hr forecast period. Brief periods with MVFR CIGs/VSBYs in showers are possible over windward areas this morning, then over leeward and interior locations this afternoon where sea breezes form.

Marine

Maritime moderate easterlies with localized fresh to strong winds through eastern island bays, channels and south of Big Island will be the general wind regime through the week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the notoriously windier waters surrounding Maui County and Big Island has been extended through early Tuesday morning and expanded to include Maalaea Bay and Pailolo Channel.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain at or near advisory heights through early afternoon. Recent south shore buoy observations of around 3 to 4 feet, near 16-18 second swell, along with spectral density plots showing additional long period energy reaching southern shores this morning, will maintain High Surf Advisory (HSA) level surf through the early afternoon hours. While south energy will be fading through the day, the HSA has been extended through the afternoon to account for the passage of the tail end of this energy. As the south swell fades, south shore surf is forecast to wane from tonight through the middle of the week. The weekend's small northwest swell will subside through the day with resultant north shore surf falling to near flat from Tuesday into the weekend. East chop will remain steady through early week. There may be a slight mid to late week uptick in wind wave action as trades strengthen a bit over and upstream of the islands.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all south facing shores.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maui County Windward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov