Photo Credit: Randy Alona Gallegos

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 70. East winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 80 to 87. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 84 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 69. North winds up to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 84 to 89. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 67 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Tuesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds up to 30 mph increasing to 10 to 30 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 66. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 73 to 82. East winds around 10 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 78 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 61 to 72. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 78 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trade winds will continue this week with high pressure slowly tracking eastward. Scant trade showers will favor windward shores and slopes.

Discussion

High pressure to our north continues to rebound as troughing farther to the north lifts out. The pressure gradient remains steep enough to support breezy trade winds across local waters this morning. Ridging aloft keeps our airmass dry and stable, with overnight soundings showing strong inversions near 6300 feet along with PW around 1.2 inches and positive lifted index values. Satellite loop shows patchy broken to overcast low clouds across windward and mauka areas of Oahu and the islands of Maui County, with only scattered low clouds noted on Kauai. Cloud cover decreased significantly across the Big Island overnight, leaving patchy broken low clouds across windward shorelines and lower slopes. Radar shows only isolated light showers associated with this cloud cover.
Models show high pressure to our north will track eastward through the week, with a low shifting the high a bit southward by next weekend. Our weather pattern will change very little through the period, with minor fluctuations in wind speeds and mostly dry and stable conditions continuing. A few windward clouds and showers will occur at times, but no significant rainfall is expected through the week.

Aviation

High pressure and dry air is in place over the region. This should limit any SHRA activity to windward and mauka locations if at all. A strong inversion will keep cigs low allowing for periods of MVFR conds. VFR conds should reign supreme otherwise. Locally breezy trades will continue slightly increasing through the rest of today.
While conds are generally VFR across the area, AIRMET Sierra for mtn obsc may be needed.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod turb S and W of island terrain.

Marine

Fresh to strong easterly trades will continue through much of the week, as the surface ridge strengthens to the north. Guidance suggests a potential weakness forming in the ridge northwest of the state next weekend, which could lead to moderate to fresh east-southeast trades.
Surf along south-facing shores will hold around the advisory level today due to a long-period south-southwest swell moving through. No signs of any downward trend at the offshore buoys early this morning with the peak energy holding steady in the 15 to 17 second bands. As a result, the advisory may need to be extended through tonight. A downward trend is anticipated Tuesday through midweek, with mainly a mix of the fading south-southwest swell and a small, medium-period southeast swell. A similar long- period south swell is expected to arrive Thursday night into Friday, then peak late Friday into Saturday.
Surf along north-facing shores will remain up slightly through the first half of the week as small north to north-northwest pulses move through. The next north pulse should fill in today, with a small north-northwest swell arriving Tuesday into midweek. A return to summertime/flat conditions is likely later this week through next weekend.
Surf along east-facing shores should trend up later this week as the trades become established locally and upstream across the eastern Pacific.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Kahoolawe, Maui Leeward West, Kona, Kauai South, East Honolulu, Honolulu Metro, Ewa Plain, Molokai West, Molokai Leeward South, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Maui Central Valley South, South Maui/Upcountry, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov