West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 78 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 75. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 87. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 67 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph after midnight.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. North winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 72. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 88. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 66 at the visitor center to around 72 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly clear with scattered showers. Lows 44 to 55. East winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Windy. Sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 67 at the visitor center to around 72 at the summit. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 62 to 67. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 73 to 80. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 68 to 89. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 57 to 74. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 68 to 88. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure north of the state will maintain breezy trade winds the next few days. Showers will primarily favor windward coastal and mauka slopes. Trades will slightly weaken around the middle of the week with a possible increase in late week shower activity.

Discussion

The downstream pressure gradient from a 1030 mb high centered approximately 950 miles north of Kauai remains tight enough across the island chain to continue breezy trades well into the week. The Hawaiian Islands will remain under the stabilizing influence of mid-level ridging as the area falls along the southeasterly periphery of the 700 mb ridge positioned to the northwest. Early day water vapor satellite imagery depicts a drier resident air mass over the islands. This is verified by a quieter radar of widely scattered weak trade showers.
While morning sounding precipitable waters fall in-line with late June climatology numbers (1.3-1.4 inch pwats), mid to upper level northeasterly drier air advecting into the state will limit overall shower activity today; light, isolated showers primarily confined to windward mauka slopes. Slightly higher mid-level moisture advecting in Monday, along with a 6-7 k ft fairly saturated layer, may be enough to increase shower coverage and produce a few hundredths more rain in those communities that typically stay wet during a normal trade flow pattern. Little to no movement of the lower and upper ridge planted north of the islands through Tuesday ensures breezy trades under partly to mostly cloudy windward skies…mostly to partly sunny leeward skies. High pressure at all levels begins to transition east during the latter half of the week. This will weaken the lower level pressure gradient enough to subtly suppress trade flow to more gentle magnitudes, although easterlies will still remain breezy along ridge lines and within more east-to-west orientated valleys. Lowering mid to upper heights, with periodic ribbons of higher moisture passing to the west, will increase shower frequency and areal coverage later in the week. Higher confidence in the development of an upper level disturbance east northeast of the islands will certainly boost weekend rain chances as we close out the month of June.

Aviation

Breezy to locally windy trades will continue through Monday. Showery cloud bands embedded in the trade flow will produce periods of MVFR conditions across windward/mauka areas of each island, particularly through the overnight and early morning hours each day. Conditions will improve through the late morning and afternoon periods.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain obscuration for windward slopes of most islands, which will likely continue through the early morning hours.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod low-level turb over and downwind of island terrain due to the breezy trade winds. This AIRMET will continue through Monday.

Marine

Surface high pressure, centered around 850 nm north of the state, will remain nearly stationary through early this week and help generate strong easterly trades. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for all local waters through Monday night. Trades are expected to then decrease slightly Tuesday through midweek as the aforementioned surface high drifts northeast, away from the islands.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and choppy through Monday due to the strong trades locally and upstream of the state. A gradual downward trend is expected Tuesday through mid week.
Expect slightly elevated surf along south-facing shores through Tuesday (though still near or below seasonal norms) as a small, medium to long period, south swell moves through. The swell has already shown up on the Barbers Point Buoy with energy in the 14-16 second period range. However, this should be short-lived, with a downward trend expected by Tuesday night. Despite a blocking high that has set up over our typical swell window southeast of New Zealand, a gale has formed northeast of this high with the head of the fetch aimed at the islands within the 180 to 200 degree directional band. Given the shorter travel distance, surf associated with this source should trend up late this week.
Nearly flat conditions will exist along north-facing shores today. A small, medium period, northwest swell will bring tiny surf to these shores late Monday through mid week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov