Photo Credit: Joan M. Flake

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 90. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 76. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 83 to 91. North winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 71. North winds up to 20 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 91. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 68 to 74. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 85 to 91. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 61 to 73. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 61 to 74. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 67. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 84. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 75 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 61 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will persist through the forecast period. Showers will typically favor windward and mauka locations with some spillage to leeward, particularly during the overnight into early morning hours. Chances of showers will increase Saturday night into early next week as an area of enhanced moisture moves from east to west across the state.

Discussion

Radar and satellite imagery show scattered clouds and light to moderate showers moving from east to west across the state early this morning. The past 6 hour rainfall totals range from .01-.32 of an inch across the state with the highest totals recorded on Oahu and the driest areas located on the leeward sides. This morning soundings shows a fairly strong inversion has developed over the Big Island around 6 kft and a weaker one building over Kauai. Total available moisture in the profile has dried out a little to near to slightly above normal. Showers will continue to focused mainly focused along windward areas with some showers spilling over to leeward areas through the morning hours of the smaller islands. There may be a slight down trend in shower and cloud coverage later this afternoon but will pick back up again overnight and early morning hours as an area of stratocumulus moves from east to west across the state.
Continue to expect clouds and showers to focus along windward and mauka regions with some showers spilling to leeward areas through the forecast period. An area of enhanced tropical moisture is expected to move from east to west just south of the state Sunday into Tuesday of next week. This could increase shower coverage, especially for the eastern half of the state. A drying trend is then expected into the second half of next week before another area of enhanced moisture may move along the southern periphery of the island chain.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades will deliver low ceilings and showers to windward and mauka areas through the forecast period. VFR conditions will prevail with periodic MVFR ceilings over windward areas.
AIRMET Sierra has been issued for mountain obscuration for low ceilings and showers remains in effect for all windward areas through the early morning hours. Conditions look to improve by mid-morning. Otherwise, no other AIRMETs are in effect.

Marine

Moderate to locally strong trade winds will persist into early next week, and as such, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the typical windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island. The SCA level winds will persist at least through the weekend.
The current small south swell is expected to gradually decline over the next few days. Small background energy from the southeast is also possible during the next few days. A more significant south swell will arrive late Sunday and Sunday night, peaking above the summertime average Monday, and then slowly lower through the middle of next week.
Seasonally flat to tiny surf is expected through early next week for north facing shores. East shore surf will remain below normal during the next couple days, then trend higher over the weekend and rise to near seasonal levels early next week.
The combination of the upcoming full moon and water levels running around 0.5 ft higher than predicted could produce minor coastal flooding as early as this afternoon. The chance for minor coastal flooding during the afternoon high tide will continue through at least Monday. A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for this event starting with this afternoon.
Increased moisture and instability moving from east to west over the offshore waters Sunday night through Monday night south of the islands could produce some thunderstorms.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov