Photo Credit: Travis Guthrie

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 70 to 76. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 90. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 69 to 77. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 90. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 91. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 71. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 82 to 89. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 70 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 51 at the visitor center to around 48 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 66 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 67. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 91. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 76. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 71 to 91. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will hold through the weekend. A more typical dry season trade wind pattern is expected to return today and hold through Saturday with passing showers focused over windward slopes.

Discussion

Satellite and radar imagery early this morning shows an area of numerous clouds and showers moving mainly Oahu and Kauai. This enhanced area of showers will continue to provide an uptick in clouds and showers through the morning hours as it moves from east to west. Overnight rainfall totals along windward zones have reached at least .20 of an inch with some select leeward areas receiving at least .01 of inch.
A 1031 mb high sitting far north of the state will continue to drive moderate to locally breezy trade winds through the weekend with only some slight variations as the high circulates north of the state and fluctuates in strength. The high is expected to weekend late over the weekend and into early next week but winds may stay breezy locally due to a disturbance passing south of the islands keeping the gradient tight.
As far as rainfall, expect a drying trend later this afternoon due partially with the diurnal pattern and a drier, more stable air mass filtering in. CIMSS precipitable water vapor imagery shows the tail end of above normal moisture currently passing over the state with near to below normal moisture levels upstream that will start to filter in today. In addition 700 mb trough will push west today while more stable conditions build in, limiting cloud depth.
By Saturday, the GFS global models show an upper level low dropping southward within the vicinity of the state around Monday while the EC models has the lo lingering just west of the state. These differences continue to create some uncertainty with the forecast during this time. If the GFS scenario pans out it could mean we will see an increase of shower coverage as early as Sunday. Stay tuned for more details.

Aviation

A stable, moderate to breezy trade wind flow will prevail during the next couple of days. Stable conditions will prevail, with only limited areas of low ceilings and temporary MVFR conditions over windward areas. Aside from afternoon clouds over Kona slopes of the Big Island, VFR conditions will prevail.
AIRMET Tango for low-level turbulence over and downwind of terrain will likely remain in effect during the next couple of days. No other AIRMETS are currently in effect.

Marine

High pressure north and northeast of the state will keep moderate to locally strong trade winds in place through the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island through 6 AM Friday. The SCA may eventually need to be extended through the weekend.
East shore surf will hold near seasonal levels through Thursday, then slowly lower Friday through early next week. A mix of southeast, south and southwest swells will keep small surf rolling into south facing shores through Monday. A slight bump in south shore surf is possible around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week as a slightly larger long-period southwest swell moves through. North shore surf will remain very small through the weekend. A nice bump in north shore surf is possible Tuesday and Wednesday of next week as a 3 to 4 foot medium to long-period northwest swell arrives.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov