Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers. Highs 77 to 83. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 68 to 75. Northeast winds 25 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 84. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 75. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Highs around 86. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Occasional showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 72. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 86. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Windy. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds 15 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Windy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 66 at the summit. East winds 15 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Occasional showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 72 to 80. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 72 to 80. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Windy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 67 to 87. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 75. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 68 to 87. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Windy trade winds will persist into the weekend. Showers will focus along windward mauka exposures, reaching leeward sides of the smaller islands.

Discussion

A strong 1036 mb high north of the state is generating robust trade winds across the islands today. 12Z soundings at Hilo and Lihue show a strong 8-10 kft inversion in place across the area. Satellite and radar show a band of showery clouds over and just upstream of Maui County and the Big Island early this morning. Expect mostly light to moderate showers to quickly pass mainly for windward slopes of the island this morning, with some showers spilling over to leeward areas of the smaller islands with the elevated trade wind inversion. Expect a slightly drier trend later this afternoon. Trade wind showers are likely to increase again tonight into Thursday.
The high to the north will strengthen as a front weakens and is pushed southward. Trade wind speeds will begin to increase today. A wind advisory has been issued for select windy areas around Maui County and the Big Island through Thursday. This advisory will likely be extended and expanded for Friday and Saturday. Model guidance remains on track with winds continuing to strengthen and possibly peak Friday through Saturday near High Wind Warning speeds for select locations. A High Wind Watch may need to be issued later today as we get closer in time and confidence increases. The remnants of a dissipated front mentioned above may arrive late Friday into Saturday. This may translate to an increase in cloud cover and showers as this feature passes through for both windward and leeward sides of the islands. Wind speeds will slowly taper down Sunday into Monday (but still remain fairly breezy) with showers focusing along windward and mauka areas.

Aviation

Windy easterly trades will gradually strengthen today and towards the weekend. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas. Expect periods of MVFR CIGS/VSBYS within passing showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail, including at the TAF sites.
AIRMET Tango for moderate low-level turbulence will persist over and downwind of all island terrain.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration above 2500 feet across windward slopes due to low clouds and showers.

Marine

A strong high pressure system will build in north of the Hawaiian Islands over the next several days. Expect strong and gusty trade winds today and tonight, possibly reaching gale force levels in the windier channels from Thursday into the weekend. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all coastal waters due to these strong trade winds and corresponding high seas. A Gale Watch may be needed for the second half of this week, for the windier waters and channels near Maui and the Big Island, in anticipation of even stronger wind speeds.
A large and long period northwest (320-330) swell started building into the Hawaiian region during the overnight hours and will reach advisory levels by early morning. This swell will rise quickly and peak well above advisory levels for exposed north and west facing shores later today, potentially nearing High Surf Warning thresholds by tonight, and then slowly decreasing, falling below advisory thresholds by Thursday night. A High Surf Advisory will start this morning at 6 AM HST, affecting north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai, as well as north facing shores of Maui.
Rough and choppy surf along east facing shores will gradually become more elevated from Thursday onward, as trade winds strengthen. Surf heights along east facing shores is expected to build to advisory levels from Thursday into Friday, and then hold into the weekend.
Surf along south facing shores remains small through the period, except for a small bump later today.
Peak monthly tides are forecast from Nov 14th to 18th. These high tides will combine with elevated seas due to strong trades and slowly fading northwest/north swells to exacerbate coastal inundation impacts, particularly for vulnerable locations during early morning high tides.

Fire weather

Trade wind speeds are forecast to exceed sustained 20 mph at Honolulu airport Friday and Saturday, with higher speeds in more exposed areas around the state. It is also possible for winds to also reach 20 mph on Thursday while ramping up, and on Sunday while trending down. The limiting factor will be relative humidity, which is expected to stay in the upper 40s to lower 50s as around Honolulu. While a Fire Weather Watch or Red Flag Warning is not anticipated at this time, conditions may come close on Thursday or Friday afternoon. Will be monitoring for any changes in this forecast in the coming days.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai and for north facing shores of Maui.
Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM HST Thursday for Lanai Mauka, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Kohala, Big Island Interior, Molokai North, Molokai West, Molokai Leeward South, Lanai Windward, Lanai Leeward, Maui Central Valley South, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov