Photo Credit: Laila Reiss

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 73 to 85. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 72. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 72 to 85. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 75 to 86. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 69. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 75 to 87. Light winds becoming east up to 15 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 80 to 86. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 64 to 69. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 82 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 53 to 71. East winds up to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 53 to 72. East winds up to 20 mph.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 69 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 58 to 64. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 70 to 79. Light winds.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 66 to 85. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 55 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 67 to 86. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure system passing north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep moderate to breezy trade winds in the forecast through Wednesday. Brief passing showers are possible mainly over windward and mountain areas, favoring the overnight hours. A cold front approaching the region from the northwest will weaken the ridge with light southeasterly winds and sea breezes from Thursday through Friday.

Discussion

The satellite picture this morning shows the remnants of a cold front stalling out and breaking up just north of Kauai. Building northeast trade winds will push cloud remnants of this system into the western islands producing brief periods of showers mainly along windward and mountain slopes of Kauai and Oahu. Eastern islands will likely remain under the stabilizing influence of the subtropical ridge limiting shower potential.
GOES satellite and south point radar imagery also confirms that Kilauea Volcano has erupted this morning around 2:30 AM HST with very light ash possibly drifting over the Kau District of the Big Island today on the moderate east-northeast trade winds. A Special Weather Statement (SPSHFO) was issued this morning for the light ash potential from this and subsequent eruptions from the Halemaumau Crater on the Kilauea Summit. Haze from the VOG (Volcanic Fog/Smog) was added to the weather grid mainly affecting the Kau District.
Looking at the wind forecast for this week, we see a high pressure system located northwest of the state drifting eastward. This system will produce moderate to breezy trade winds over the islands, which will continue to blow from the northeast to east at through Wednesday. This high center will then drift into the East Pacific, away from the islands as a cold front approaches the state from the northwest. This frontal trough and upper level trough will weaken the subtropical ridge near the islands. Wind speeds will decrease to light to moderate southeasterly winds with expanding sea breezes for all islands. Another migratory high passing north of the state this weekend will bring another round of trade winds to the Hawaii region.
Weather wise a stable ridge aloft will keep low temperature inversion heights in place for much of the week. The one exception will be with the dissipating cold front stalling out near Kauai this weekend, coupled with an upper level trough. The low level instability from the remnant frontal cloud bands and upper level forcing from the trough will potentially combine forces next weekend to bring a brief period of enhanced trade wind showers for all islands.

Aviation

Breezy trades have returned. Low cigs and SHRA will once again favor windward and mauka locations. Brief MVFR conds can be expected in any SHRA but VFR should generally prevail.
No AIRMETs in effect.

Marine

Hazardous marine conditions will persist today, with the largest in a series of extra-large northwest swells holding this morning. Observations at the buoys have been trending down overnight, but remain large enough to extend the warning/advisory package through the day. A gradual downward trend is anticipated thereafter, with surf potentially falling below advisory levels late Tuesday through Wednesday as the swell continues to ease.
This extended period of warning-level surf, which began last Wednesday, has already produced significant coastal impacts, including considerable beach erosion along exposed shorelines, with water periodically overtopping vulnerable low-lying roadways and properties. These impacts will remain possible today, particularly through the morning high tide cycle, despite the monthly tidal minima.
Fresh to strong easterly trades have returned overnight and will persist through Tuesday as the surface ridge builds north of the area. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for all Hawaiian waters due to a combination of strong trades and for seas exceeding exceeding 10 feet over exposed waters. Trades are expected to gradually ease and shift southeasterly around Wednesday as the ridge weakens.
Surf along east facing shores will briefly pick up through the first half of the week, with rough, short period energy expected. A downward trend is possible later in the week.
For the second half of the holiday week, another warning-level northwest swell is possible (albeit smaller than Sunday) due to a storm-force low currently evolving over the far northwest Pacific, southeast of the Kamchatka Peninsula. A broad wind field associated with this feature is focused at the islands along the 300 to 320 directional bands, with seas reaching 30 to 40 feet predicted over the next couple of days as the system tracks eastward toward the Date Line.

Fire weather

No critical fire weather conditions are expected for the next seven days. Mostly dry weather are forecast across the state with limited shower activity as the dry spell continues.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and north facing shores of Maui.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for north and west facing shores of the Big Island.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov