West Side

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 80 to 86. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows 68 to 75. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 80 to 85. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 89. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 76. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the evening, then showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 82 to 90. East winds up to 25 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows around 70. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 65 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the evening, then showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 80. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Lows 63 to 68. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 61 to 74. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 72 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trade winds will continue through the forecast period. Expect enhanced shower activity through the rest of today, trending drier thereafter for the latter end of the week. While conditions begin to trend drier, light, embedded showers will persist predominately across windward and mauka areas.

Discussion

High pressure continues well northeast of the islands, maintaining breezy trades through the next several days. Expect passing clouds and showers to be embedded within the associated trades, predominately impacting windward and mauka areas, though stray showers may linger for leeward areas.
Meanwhile, a weak upper-level trough passing in the vicinity of the islands will maintain presence through the day prior to exiting to the north resulting in some weak instability particularly near Kauai. During this time, shower activity will be enhanced and periods of moderate rainfall can be expected.
Model guidance of the Euro and GFS are in fair agreement of upper-level ridging developing east of the islands as the aforementioned trough exits the area. While conditions will begin to trend drier across most of the state, lingering instability may enhance shower activity at times across the island despite overall impacts remaining relatively insignificant. Otherwise, expect moderate to locally breezy trades to continue, which may facilitate light, embedded showers to windward and mauka areas.

Aviation

Breezy trades continue across the Hawaiian Islands through the next several days, however, will begin to decrease in strength after tonight. Expect periods of MVFR/IFR conditions at times in showers embedded within these trades resulting in reduced visibility, especially across windward and mountain areas. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail for much of the state.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect this morning for moderate turbulence below 8000 feet downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely be needed through at least this evening as the breezy trade winds persist.

Marine

High pressure northeast of the state will drive moderate to locally strong trade winds for the next several days. A weather disturbance passing well north of the area late this weekend should help to ease the pressure gradient and allow trades to gradually ease into early next week. The Small Craft Advisory for the windier waters of Maui County and the Big Island has been extended through late this afternoon and may need to be extended through tonight, though conditions appear borderline.
Nearshore buoys continue to indicate a 3 to 4 foot, medium period, south swell passing through the local waters. This would equate to above average surf along south facing shores, though just shy of High Surf Advisory criteria. This swell should gradually fade through Thursday, leaving behind background energy in its wake. A smaller, long period, south swell is modeled to arrive early next week.
Surf along E shores remains rough due to breezy trades expected the next several days. Surf along N shores remains tiny through the period.
Peak high tides associated with the lunar cycle will cause minor coastal flooding along shorelines and low lying coastal areas through Thursday. The Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the daily peak tide each afternoon and may be exacerbated by the current S swell.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov