Hawaiʻi DLIR projects 6.1% job growth by 2032, led by health care and food services

The state’s total employment is projected to grow by 6.1% over the next decade, adding 41,190 jobs between 2022 and 2032, according to new labor market projections from the Hawai‘i State Department of Labor and Industrial Relations’ Research and Statistics Office.

Statewide employment is expected to increase from 671,010 to 712,200 jobs. The projections are based on 2022 employment data and forecast trends through 2032.

Each year, the state is expected to see approximately 83,050 job openings. These openings will primarily result from workers changing jobs (55%) and exiting the labor force (40%), while just 5% will stem from actual job growth.

The health care and social assistance sector is projected to add the most jobs — nearly one-quarter of all new positions — with a 12.7% growth rate, particularly in social services.

Food services and drinking places follows with 11.9% projected growth, supported by Hawai‘i’s tourism economy. Accommodation jobs are forecast to rise 10.2%, adding 3,750 positions.

The self-employed workforce is also growing, with projections showing it will reach 58,150 by 2032 — bolstered by the post-pandemic gig economy.

Meanwhile, employment in government and retail trade is expected to decline, impacted by federal policy changes and shifts toward e-commerce.

These statewide projections are published in even-numbered years, while county-specific projections are issued in odd-numbered years.

More information is available that may be of interest to students, jobseekers, recruiters, employers, policymakers and educators or trainers designing workforce programs.

Data tables, narrative reports (expected by the end of the month) and planning tools like “Best Job Opportunities to 2032” can be found at Hawai‘i Workforce Infonet: www.hiwi.org.

The projections were funded through the US Department of Labor’s Workforce Information Grants to States program, which awarded Hawai‘i $321,585 for Program Year 2024.