West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 70 to 76. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 87. Northeast winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 88. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 70 to 77. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny. Highs around 90. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 72. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 83 to 90. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 51 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 66 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 68. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 74 to 83. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 90. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 62 to 76. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 75 to 91. East winds up to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Lingering clouds and showers will continue to move through the state on the trade wind flow today. With the weaker winds and increased moisture, temperatures will feel warmer than usual through at least Monday. Expect trades to strengthen to breezy levels around the middle of next week.

Discussion

No significant change to the forecast with the morning package, and no change to the forecast philosophy.
The surface trough has dissipated, however lingering moisture from the feature remains, and will continue to impact the islands over the next few days. Satellite shows the low clouds and showers are concentrated over and upstream of the Big Island and Maui. The CIMSS MIMIC precipitable water (PW) shows value of 1.4 to 1.6 inches upstream of these islands. The overnight soundings from Lihue and Hilo had 1.4 and 1.8 inches of PW respectively. An uptick in showers being carried in on the trade wind flow remains possible, but rainfall intensities should remain at moderate levels, and if anything the rainfall should be beneficial to our ongoing drought conditions.
The lighter trade winds over the islands will allow for localized sea breezes across select leeward areas by mid day. Sea breeze convergence should lead to an increase of clouds and scattered showers this afternoon across interior and leeward areas. For areas that do not see any shower activity, with the increase in humidities, temperatures will feel muggy.
There is good model agreement with high pressure building back in to the northeast of the state early this week, which should allow the trade winds to strengthen back to moderate to locally breezy levels by midweek. At the same time, a drier airmass is expected to return to the islands.
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center has begun issuing advisories on Tropical Depression One-C, far southeast of the state. The official track has the system strengthening to a tropical storm as it moves west over the next several days. This system is not expected to impact the Hawaiian Islands.

Aviation

Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected today, with trades slowly building as we head to the middle of the week. Lingering clouds and showers, leftover moisture from a surface trough that has dissipated, will continue to be carried in on the trade winds today. These will clouds and showers will primarily impact the windward sides of the Big Island and to a lessor amount Maui.
Predominately VFR conditions are expected to prevail, with only brief periods of MVFR conditions possible in clouds and showers being carried in on the trades.
There are currently no AIRMETs in effect, but an AIRMET for mountain obscurations could still be possible over windward areas of the Big Island and Maui with the upstream clouds and showers.

Marine

High pressure far northwest will slowly build north of the area through the first half of the week. Trade winds will maintain gentle to locally fresh speeds through Monday then strengthen Tuesday to moderate to locally strong levels. As the trades strengthen, a Small Craft Advisory for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island is expected. There is also potential for a tropical disturbance to track far south of the waters, which could increase the local trade winds speeds during the middle of the week.
South facing shores will remain small through Tuesday with mainly medium period background energy. A storm force low east of New Zealand is sending a moderate to large medium to long period south swell that is expected to fill in slowly late Wednesday, and peak Thursday into Friday at or just above the High Surf Advisory criteria.
East facing shores will remain small through Monday before rising Tuesday through the rest of the week as trade winds increase. Flat to tiny surf expected along north facing shores through the week.

Fire weather

Lingering moisture moving over and upstream of the islands will bring an increase in humidity over the next few days. Trade winds are also expected to decrease some today, with localized sea breezes developing during the late morning through the afternoon hours. Trade winds are expected to restrengthen Tuesday into Wednesday, with developing dry conditions returning across the state. This could bring elevated fire weather concerns during the second half of next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov