West Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 78 to 84. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 75. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 84. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 77 to 86. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 65 to 74. North winds up to 10 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 77 to 86. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers early in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 70 to 76 near the shore to 50 to 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 79 to 87. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 68 to 73. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 87. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 43 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers early in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 70 to 76 near the shore to 50 to 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 73 to 79. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 66. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny early in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 73 to 79. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers early in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 73 to 86. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 57 to 73. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 71 to 85. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light winds and humid conditions will persist today as a weak surface trough lingers near the state. Interior clouds and a few showers will develop during the afternoon hours, followed by partial clearing overnight. Trade winds will gradually return Thursday and Friday, bringing a more typical pattern of mainly windward and mauka showers with a few afternoon showers over leeward areas. A slight increase in shower coverage remains possible this weekend as an upper disturbance approaches the islands, followed by stronger trade winds and more stable conditions early next week.

Discussion

The humid land and sea breeze pattern with dewpoints hovering in the mid to upper 60s will continue today as the weak trough meanders near the central portion of the island chain. Expect mostly sunny conditions for most areas this morning, followed by another round of interior and leeward clouds and isolated to scattered showers this afternoon. Shower chances may remain slightly enhanced near central islands where the trough is located. Accumulations, however, should remain light due to mostly stable conditions and plenty of dry air above a strong inversion positioned around 7,000 ft.
Light to moderate trade winds will gradually return Thursday and Friday as the subtropical ridge rebuilds north of the state. Showers will become more focused over windward and mauka areas, though localized afternoon sea breeze clouds and a few showers may still develop over sheltered leeward terrain.
By the weekend, an upper-level disturbance approaching the region could lead to a slight increase in showers, though uncertainty remains elevated due to model differences regarding the timing and strength of these features. More stable conditions and stronger trade winds are expected to return early next week.

Aviation

A light background wind prevails with land breezes expected through this morning, transitioning to sea breezes this afternoon. Expect VFR conditions initially, then periods of MVFR conditions as clouds and shower activity develop later along island interiors. Light winds are expected to persist throughout the day; though, trades are anticipated to return by the latter end of the week.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect, however, AIRMET Sierra may be needed this afternoon to account for clouds and showers associated with sea breezes this afternoon.

Marine

A trough north of the smaller islands will move very little today and allow for weak to flow to continue across all local waters. Thus, expect diurnally driven late morning and early afternoon sea breezes to develop along waters near the immediate coasts. Thursday into Friday, a surface ridge building northwest of the state will bring a return of light to locally moderate northeasterly trades. Trades will then strengthen into moderate to locally fresh range by this weekend.
A moderate medium-period northwest swell will gradually fade through the rest of today. A new long period swell originating from a gale force low south of Kamchatka will build tonight and give another boost to north and west shore surf Thursday and Friday, but should remain below advisory levels. Surf will gradually decline over the weekend into early next week.
A small, long-period south swell, generated from a storm-force low that tracked southeast of New Zealand last week, will fill in today and likely provide a small bump in south shore surf through the end of the week.
Surf along east facing shores will remain below normal during the next several days due to the lack of strong trades over and upstream of the islands. Surf along east facing shores will get a small bump up into the weekend as trades gradually increase.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov