West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 79 to 84. East winds up to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 66 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 85. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 64 to 74. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 84. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 79 to 86. East winds up to 25 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 42 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 62 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 71 to 80. East winds up to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 71 to 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 59 to 74. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 70 to 86. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A band of moisture will continue moving westward through the region, increasing shower coverage over the western islands today. Windward and mauka areas could see minor flooding, similar to what windward Big Island experienced yesterday. A more typical (drier but not dry) trade wind pattern will return by this evening and continue into early next week.

Discussion

Early this morning, a band of moisture that produced substantial rainfall and minor flooding for portions of the Big Island yesterday has largely moved west of Maui County and the Big Island. As such, latest radar imagery shows that the majority of showers are now focused within the coastal waters off of leeward coasts. However, higher moisture content remains over the western end of the state. The early morning 12z upper air sounding from Lihue showed that the inversion height remains elevated at around 14,000 feet with around 2 inches of precipitable water, while the Hilo sounding shows that the inversion has significantly lowered to around 9,000 feet and precipitable water has reduced to around 1.5 inches.
The focus for enhanced shower coverage, with possible minor flooding, will be the western islands today. This will be followed by drier conditions statewide by this evening as the plume of moisture continues to move west of the region. A weak ridge aloft to the northeast will weaken over the next few days, and a new stronger closed upper ridge will develop to the north this weekend. This will help keep a strong surface high to our north, ensuring moderate to locally breezy trade winds continue throughout the next several days. Global models continue to indicate smaller pockets of moisture embedded within the trade flow will briefly increase trade wind shower activity from time to time through the rest of this week, but it will be difficult to time until closer to arrival. Therefore, periods of showers will continue, primarily focused along windward and mountain areas. Some days will see slightly more showers than others, and the overall pattern looks slightly wetter than normal for June. However, the risk for any significant flooding will remain low from Thursday well into next week.

Aviation

Showers will dwindle this morning, with the last of any organized activity moving out of Kauai by the late morning / early afternoon hours. Drier conditions are then expected to prevail across the islands as we return to a more typical trade wind pattern. Broadly anticipating widespread VFR conditions by this afternoon.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is in effect for windward Kauai and Oahu, with conditions expected to improve by this afternoon.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence below 8000 feet all areas of the state, and is expected to continue as we return to breezy trades across the state.

Marine

Fresh to strong easterly trades will slightly strengthen through the second half of the week as the subtropical ridge strengthens north of the islands. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across the typically windier channels and waters around Maui County and the Big Island. Additional marine zones may need to be added to the advisory in subsequent packages as the area of strong winds expands. Guidance suggests this pattern will persist through the weekend.
Surf along exposed south-facing shores will reach and remain just below the warning level threshold of 15 feet faces today as a long- period south-southwest swell moves through. Thereafter, a gradual downward trend is expected through the weekend. The Barbers Point buoy observed a jump to around 5 feet, 16 second swell overnight and continues to observe swell near that level early this morning. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for south facing shores through early Thursday morning. Surf may linger around advisory thresholds during the day Thursday but will likely drop below advisory thresholds by Friday.
A small bump in surf along north-facing shores provided by a small, short-period north-northwest swell will fade today before a relatively larger north swell provides another bump to surf Thursday and Friday before easing over the weekend. Surf along east-facing shores will gradually build, with heights returning to near seasonal levels by the end of the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Kahoolawe, Maui Leeward West, Kona, Kauai South, East Honolulu, Honolulu Metro, Ewa Plain, Molokai Leeward South, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Maui Central Valley South, South Maui/Upcountry, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov