Tropical Storm Lowell expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday; Karina still in Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Storm Lowell remains over 700 miles ESE of the Big Island. The latest forecast track has Lowell passing south of the Big Island late Wednesday into Thursday. Trade winds are expected to become strong and gusty Thursday into Friday as Lowell passes south of the state. Forecast still remains very uncertain for Labor Day weekend, with the potential for Lowell and Karina within the vicinity of the state, according to the National Weather Service area forecast discussion for Hawaiʻi.

Breezy trades will continue through at least the middle of the week with showers generally favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly during the overnight through early morning hours each day.

Tropical Storm Lowell:

At 5 a.m. HST, the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was located 785 miles SE of Hilo, Hawaiʻi, and was moving toward the west near 14 mph, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. This motion is expected to continue during the next two to three days. Thereafter, a gradual turn toward the WNW is forecast. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast over the next 48 hours, and Lowell is expected to become a major hurricane by Wednesday, the CPHC reports. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center.

Swells generated by Lowell are likely to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands beginning around mid-week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Category 4 Hurricane Karina:

At 5 a.m. HST, the center of Hurricane Karina was located about 1,055 miles WSW of the Southern Tip of Baja California and was moving toward the west near 9 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. This motion is expected to continue through the rest of today. A turn toward the WNW is forecast on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph with higher gusts. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity remain possible today, and a gradual weakening trend is expected to begin on Tuesday, the NHC reports.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).

Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of days and will likely spread northward to southern California on Monday through midweek.