Eye of Lowell expected to pass near Kauaʻi Monday night as a Category 2 storm; rain in the forecast

(Update: 11 a.m., Friday, Sept. 4, 2026) The latest forecast shows Lowell as a powerful category 4 hurricane. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor its progress and future forecasts.

“The forecast track has been fairly stable overnight, currently showing a turn to the northwest Saturday night, and then to the north Sunday night. The eye is expected to pass by to the west of Kauaʻi and Līhuʻe Monday night as a Category 2 storm,” according to a forecast discussion compiled Friday morning by the National Weather Service.

“There is still some uncertainty on the track, of course, as we are still over 72 hours from the approximate time of closest passage. Heavy rain is possible over all the islands, beginning as early as Sunday,” the NWS reports.

Forecasters with the NWS say the location and timing of heavy rain will depend on how the rain-banding sets up around Lowell, and will evolve Sunday through Tuesday. For now, the NWS says rainfall amounts of 2 to 6 inches with isolated 10 inches are forecast.

“We know that the memory of Hurricane ʻIniki is close to the surface for many of our families right now, so let us stay vigilant and prepare with a steady hand,” said Mayor Derek S.K. Kawakami in a news release update on Friday morning. “We need everyone to be patient, stay safe on our roads, and check on your neighbors. We don’t need any unforeseen tragedies while everyone is preparing. Also, use this time to prepare and talk story with your ʻohana tonight so everyone knows the plan.”

“Hurricane Lowell will remain near major hurricane strength when it moves closer to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday night,” according to the National Weather Service, with forecasters reminding the public that weather impacts such as high surf and heavy rain may extend hundreds of miles from the center of Hurricane Lowell.

Watches could be required for portions of the westernmost Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

At 11 a.m., the eye of Hurricane Lowell was located about 615 miles S of Līhuʻe, Kauaʻi, and 590 miles SSW of Honolulu, near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 160.7 West. Lowell is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph. This general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so, followed by a sharp turn to the north or north-northeast on Sunday, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph with higher gusts. Lowell is currently a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional intensification is possible, and Lowell could regain category 5 strength later today or tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 926 mb (27.35 inches).

Lowell is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals exceeding 10 inches possible, for Kauaʻi and the Big Island. For Maui, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible. Across the remaining islands, rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches is possible. This rainfall may produce flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions during the next several days across many of the Hawaiian islands.

The NWS reports that a high pressure ridge to the north and Hurricane Lowell passing south of the Hawaiian Islands will keep breezy trade winds in the forecast today. Expect decreasing wind speed trends this weekend as a low pressure trough moving into the Central Pacific basin weakens the ridge north of the state. Periods of showers will favor windward mountain areas with brief passing showers over leeward zones.

As for category 1 Hurricane Karina, it is expected to weaken and pass to the north and northeast of the state. The system was last located 910 miles E of Hilo, Hawaiʻi.