Nolo holds steady, expected to turn northward overnight

(Update: 5 p.m. HST Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2026). Tropical Storm Nolo is holding steady and is expected to turn northward tonight. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Hawaiʻi County, and is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds.

At 5 p.m. HST, the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was located about 295 miles S of South Point on Hawaiʻi Island and 475 miles SSE of Honolulu, Oʻahu near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 155.9 West. Nolo is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph. A sharp turn to the north and north-northeast is expected late tonight, with this motion continuing through the end of the week. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Big Island of Hawaiʻi on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Nolo is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday night and could become a major hurricane by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area starting as early as Friday night.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Nolo will produce rainfall totals of 15 to 20 inches across the Big Island with maximum amounts of 35 inches. This rainfall may produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches expected across Maui. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides possible across Maui, especially in areas of high terrain. Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected with isolated flooding possible.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: Hawaiʻi County (1 to 3 ft).

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF: Swells generated by Nolo are expected to reach exposed east and south-facing shores of the Big Island by Friday, spreading westward and building through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.