#labor market
UHERO: Hawaiʻi appears headed for a mild recession
The UHERO second quarter forecast for 2025 reports: “sharp increases in US import tariffs, sweeping federal layoffs, and volatile fiscal and immigration policies are undermining consumer confidence, raising inflation expectations, and worsening the business outlook—both nationally and in Hawaiʻi’s visitor-dependent economy.”
Maui County’s economic recovery trails rest of the state; construction builds momentum
Maui County’s economic recovery remains slower than other islands, particularly in tourism and employment, suggesting lingering effects from the August 2023 wildfires disaster that disrupted tourism and local businesses, according to the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism the 2025 Statistical and Economic Report, published in this first quarter.
Growth, recovery forecast for Hawaiʻi, but Maui County expected to lag behind
Construction activity, including the rebuilding of wildfire devastated Lahaina town, will overcome relative weakness in tourism and help build a stable economic recovery, at a rate of 1.3%, for Hawaiʻi statewide, according to a forecast by economists with the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism.
UHERO: Construction up following Lahaina wildfires, partial recovery of visitor and labor market on Maui
Hawaiʻi’s economy has been sustained by a resilient US economy and the gradual return of international visitors. According to the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization’s first quarter forecast for 2024, with the islands’ post-pandemic recovery now largely complete, the economy will downshift this year, and growth will increasingly come from local sources, including a robust construction sector bolstered by the rebuilding of Lahaina, Maui.
