#uhero forecast

The clearest near-term risk is federal layoffs, which could result in a loss of more than 2,000 local jobs, fully offsetting growth in construction and the lift from local tax cuts. Together with other federal policies, this places the Hawaiʻi economy at risk of recession over the next few years, UHERO reports. 

Maui’s economy will only gradually recover from its post-wildfire downturn while visitor industries in other counties across the state will continue to operate at high levels, according to the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization’s (UHERO) third quarter forecast for 2024.

UHERO forecast: “There remain a host of uncertainties surrounding Maui’s future recovery path, including how fast residents can be moved from hotels to more permanent housing, the speed of ongoing cleanup work, the extent and duration of support programs, and how long and in what fashion rebuilding will occur.”

The University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization launched a publicly available, interactive housing data dashboard on Sept. 26, that allows users to customize their data reports based on location, with information such as property and rental market, demographics, zoning and housing stock. UHERO designed the dashboard to inform discussions on the way forward for housing in Hawaiʻi.

The report shows Maui lost more than $13 million of visitor spending each day in the weeks following the fire. With the planned Oct. 8 reopening of unaffected West Maui resort areas, economists are not anticipating a rush to travel, but a gradual recovery instead.

Recent developments bring both “promise and peril” for Hawaiʻi, according to the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization’s second quarter forecast for 2023 released today.

Due to the dramatic international spread of the novel coronavirus, the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization (UHERO) has sharply lowered its economic forecast for the state.