Malika Dudley’s Maui County Forecast (10/27/14)

Kihei Sunset / Image: Eric & Liz Pruett

By Meteorologist Malika Dudley / Email: malika@mauinow.com

**A breakdown of expected conditions specific to Maui County is presented below in graphical form. High and low temperatures, swell, percent chance of clouds / rain and wind conditions are each depicted. All graphics are provided by the National Weather Service in Honolulu.**

Alerts

There are no alerts posted for Maui County at this time.

Today

Today we expect partly cloudy skies and scattered showers for windward and mauka areas. Leeward spots will get lots of sunshine and only isolated showers, if any.

Map of expected high temperatures in Maui County on Monday October 27, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

High temperatures should fall in the range of 83° to 88° with higher elevations experiencing lower temperatures overall.  Winds should be out of the northeast around 15 mph. Breezier through the Central Valley on Maui and on Lānaʻi with winds from 10 – 20 mph expected. Molokaʻi will get more of a easterly flow at 10 – 15 mph. South Maui is forecasted to get light easterly winds about 10 mph to start, then shifting out of the southwest in the afternoon with gusts up to possibly 25 mph.

Sunrise: 6:26 a.m.

Sunset: 5:53 p.m.

UV index at 8 (“very high” exposure level)

Map of expected overnight low temperatures in Maui County on Monday October 27, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Tonight

Tonight we expect partly cloudy skies with scattered windward and mauka showers.  The land breeze will bring mostly clear skies to leeward spots across Maui County. East winds are expected to hover around 15 mph. Low temperatures should fall in the range of 74° to 79° with lower temperatures recorded at higher elevations.

Moonrise: 9:58 a.m.

Moonset: 9:23 p.m.

Looking Ahead

Light to moderate trades early in the week should allow local land and sea breeze conditions to develop. Later in the week trade winds are forecasted to become breezy. Models are also showing enhanced windward and mauka showers Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak, spread out front is also expected to enhance showers Thursday night into Friday (Halloween). I’ll keep an eye on this feature and bring you the latest if anything changes. We don’t want our trick-or-treaters to get rained out! Following the front, we expect stronger winds, cooler air and lower humidity.

Tide chart for Kahului and Kihei on Monday October 27, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Surf & Seas

Our current north swell (350-10°) continues to slowly fade as ANA generates a reinforcement of short-period north swell (355-15°). This one is pretty small with only knee to waist high waves expected today for best exposed shorelines. On the west side, breaks exposed to this swell could catch knee to thigh high waves at the best spots. No north exposure = pretty flat conditions.

A slightly larger north swell is expected to slowly start building late Wednesday bringing overhead waves by Friday. Larger short period easterly swells area expected late in the week as trade winds strengthen.

Our small south-southwest (200-190°) swell has dropped down to trace amounts. Another small boost is expected by mid-week offering knee to waist high surf, possibly bigger at the best exposures on Wednesday. After that swell fades out, surf goes quiet with not much on the horizon out of the South Pacific.

ANA is now an extratropical storm and has begun to merge with a storm south of the Aleutians. This will help to boost surf heights for north exposures late Wednesday into Thursday.

Keep in mind, surf heights are measured on the face of the wave from trough to crest. Heights vary from beach to beach, and at the same beach, from break to break.  

Almanac for Kahului Airport

Maximum Temperature for today: 

Normal 86°

Record 94° / Set in 1996

Minimum Temperature for today:

Normal 69°

Record 60° / Set in 1952

Weather conditions for Maui County at 7am on Monday October 27, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Weather conditions for Maui County at 4pm on Monday October 27, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Chance of cloud cover in Maui County at 7am on Monday October 27, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Chance of cloud cover in Maui County at 4pm on Monday October 27, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Map of expected wind conditions in Maui County on Monday October 27, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Map of expected wind conditions in Maui County on Monday October 27, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Surface features weather chart for Monday October 27, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS