UPDATE 2PM, 10/17/14, Hurricane ANA strengthens, Moving Faster

Potential impacts released during Friday, Oct. 17, 2014 briefing, image courtesy NOAA/NWS.

By Meteorologist Malika Dudley

***An updated hurricane forecast as of 5 p.m. on Friday, Oct. 17, 2014 is now posted at the following LINK.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center conducted a press briefing at 2 p.m. Friday, Oct. 17, 2014. Warning Coordination Meteorologist Chris Brenchley presented the latest information on Tropical Storm ANA including potential impacts as the system continues to approach the state.

Below are some highlights from the briefing including timing, forecast probability, and anticipated impacts.

Summary of Alerts:

HURRICANE WARNING – All Hawaiian Offshore Waters / Starting Friday PM

TROPICAL STORM WARNING – All Hawaiian Offshore Waters / Big Island leeward coastal waters and Big Island southeast waters

TROPICAL STORM WATCH – Statewide / All coastal waters

FLASH FLOOD WATCH – Big Island / Anticipated for the entire state beginning Friday afternoon

Current situation:

Maximum sustained winds are at 80 mph

Ana is moving west-northwest at 17 mph

Hurricane force winds extend 20 miles from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend 80 miles from the center of the system.

The center of Tropical Storm Ana was last located near 16.6 N and 156.2 W, about 230 miles SSW of Hilo, Hawaiʻi; 215 miles S of Kailua-Kona, 160 miles SSW of South Point; 295 miles S of Kahului, Maui; 320 miles SSE of Kaunakakai, Molokaʻi; 295 miles S of Lānaʻi City; and 345 miles SSE of Honolulu, Oʻahu on Friday, Oct. 18, 2014 at 2 p.m.

A slight turn to the northwest is expected today and Saturday. A decrease in forward speed is expected Saturday night and Sunday. On this forecast track, the center of Ana will pass about 115 miles southwest of the Big Island tonight and about 115 miles southwest of the rest of the main Hawaiian islands this weekend. Some strengthening is expected today. The system is expected to weaken into a tropical storm by Sunday morning.

Satellite imagery, 2 p.m. HST, Friday, Oct. 17, 2014, courtesy NOAA/NWS.

Uncertainty: 

The probability of tropical storm conditions continues a gradual downward trend – for Maui leeward waters it’s 34%; 8% in Hilo; 16% in Kailua-Kona, 20% near South Point, 36% in Honolulu, 40% in Līhue, and 45% for Niʻihau.

Potential Impacts:

Over the next 6 to 12 hours rain showers will increase on the Big Island. Hilo will see an increase in rain this afternoon while Kailua-Kona is expected to see the worst effects late this evening and into tomorrow morning. ANA’s effects will start to be seen in Maui County later tonight and into Saturday morning. Ana is expected to begin to impact Oʻahu Saturday evening and Sunday for Kauaʻi.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected for the Big Island today – potentially causing dangerous flash flooding with excessive runoff causing possible mud slides and rock slides in steep terrain. Flooding is possible statewide over the weekend. These heavy rain conditions are likely to sweep up the island chain from east to west through the weekend. Statewide, 2 – 8 inches of rain are expected. Higher amounts are possible up to 12 inches in the most vulnerable spots.

Large dangerous surf conditions will impact the eastern end of the Hawaiian Islands spreading westward through the weekend as well. South and southeast shores could see wave heights in the 10 – 20 foot face range. Additional storm surge of 1 -2 feet for southeastern shores is likely. There are already reports of 15 foot waves at South Point on the Big Island. Surf up to 12 feet has also been reported farther up the coast.

Winds are expected to increase to 30 mph. Gusts could reach 50 mph or more as the center of ANA passes. Highest winds will be through mountainous terrain, valleys and passes. On the Big Island gusts up to 40 mph have been recorded at South Point today already.