Malika Dudley’s Maui County Forecast (10/28/14)

Seven Sacred Pools / Image: Krannichfeld Photography

By Meteorologist Malika Dudley / Email: [email protected]
***A breakdown of expected conditions specific to Maui County is presented below in graphical form. High and low temperatures, swell, percent chance of clouds / rain and wind conditions are each depicted. All graphics are provided by the National Weather Service in Honolulu.***

Alerts
There are no alerts posted for Maui County at this time.

Today
Today we expect partly cloudy skies and scattered showers for windward and mauka areas. Leeward spots will get lots of sunshine and only isolated showers, if any. High temperatures should fall in the range of 84° to 89° with higher elevations experiencing lower temperatures overall.

Map of expected high temperatures in Maui County on Tuesday October 28, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Winds should be generally out of the east from 10 – 15 mph. Breezier on Molokaʻi with winds from 10 – 20 mph expected. South Maui is forecasted to get light easterly winds about 10 mph to start, then shifting out of the southwest in the afternoon with gusts up to possibly 35 mph. The windward side of Maui, including the Wailuku, Hāna and Makawao areas could see gusts up to 30 mph.

Sunrise: 6:26 a.m.
Sunset: 5:52 p.m.
UV index at 8 (“very high” exposure level)

Map of expected overnight low temperatures in Maui County on Tuesday October 28, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Tonight
Tonight we expect partly cloudy skies with scattered windward and mauka showers. The land breeze will bring mostly clear skies to leeward spots across Maui County. East winds are expected to hover around 15 mph. Low temperatures should fall in the range of 73° to 78° with lower temperatures recorded at higher elevations.

Moonrise: 10:53 a.m.
Moonset: 9:21 p.m.

Looking Ahead
Winds are expected to pick up significantly, maybe as early as Wednesday afternoon. Models are also showing a wet trade wind weather pattern with enhanced windward and mauka showers expected to affect the state starting Thursday night or early Friday (Halloween). Models aren’t quite in agreement yet as to how far south the moisture will extend. For now, it looks like rainfall associated with this front could reach Maui County by Saturday. Having said that there is also a disturbance expected in the area during that same time period and that could potentially enhance rainfall as well. Will keep watching these feature and bring you the latest as the forecast solutions become more certain about Halloween night.

Expected surf heights in Maui County on Tuesday October 28, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Surf & Seas
For northern exposures today we don’t expect much. Trade swell will generate waves up to about waist high at the best spots. As expected, former hurricane ANA merged with a storm south of the Aleutians. This will help to boost surf heights for north exposures (340-360°) filling in Wednesday and peaking on Thursday. Another shot of surf energy is expected to possibly fill in on Friday and fade out through the weekend.

Larger short period easterly swells area expected late in the week as trade winds strengthen.

Today a new south-southwest swell (200-180°) is expected to build. The swell should peak tomorrow and hold through Thursday before fading out. Some spots along the southwest and west side of Maui will feel partial shadowing. Only breaks that catch the SSW will see surf heights of knee to possibly waist high by sundown. South exposures should get knee to about waist high waves early on, with bigger sets by sunset at the best breaks. A reinforcing south swell is expected over the weekend. After that swell fades out, surf goes quiet with not much on the horizon out of the South Pacific.

Keep in mind, surf heights are measured on the face of the wave from trough to crest. Heights vary from beach to beach, and at the same beach, from break to break.

Almanac for Kahului Airport
Maximum Temperature for today:
Normal 86°
Record 93° / Set in 1957

Minimum Temperature for today:
Normal 69°
Record 60° / Set in 1971 and tied in 1972

Map of expected weather conditions in Maui County at 7am on Tuesday October 28, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Map of expected weather conditions in Maui County at 4pm on Tuesday October 28, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Chance of cloud cover in Maui County at 7am on Tuesday October 28, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Expected winds in Maui County at 7am on Tuesday October 28, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Expected winds in Maui County at 4pm on Tuesday October 28, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Surface map / Image: NOAA / NWS