11 p.m.: Erick & Flossie Updates for Friday, Aug. 2

August 2, 2019, 1:02 AM HST · Updated August 3, 12:08 AM
Wendy Osher · 5 Comments
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Erick and Flossie. 11 p.m. satellite imagery courtesy NOAA/NWS.

Erick and Flossie Friday Updates: http://mauinow.com/?p=308500
Maui Storm Closures/Cancellations/Notices: http://mauinow.com/?p=308555
Storm Impacts for Airports, Harbors, Highways: http://mauinow.com/?p=308580

Note: The next official update from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be posted at 5 a.m. on Saturday, Aug. 3, 2019.  

(Update: 11 p.m. 8.2.19)

Erick “Barely Surviving,” Continues on Path Away from Hawaiʻi

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The Central Pacific Hurricane center says Erick is “barely surviving,” as it continues on a westward path further away from the Main Hawaiian Islands tonight.

According to the National Weather Service, moisture from “the Erick passing the area” will affect mainly windward areas under the trade winds.

At 11 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located about 400 miles SW of Hāna; 380 miles SW of Kahului; 365 miles SW of Kaunakakai; 355 miles SW of Lānaʻi City and 340 miles from Honolulu (near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 160.9 West).

Erick is moving toward the west near 14 mph, with a turn toward the WNW expected on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast with Erick is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low on Saturday, according to the National Weather Service.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.

Swells generated by Erick will subside across the main Hawaiian Islands tonight.

On the heels of Erick, tropical cyclone Flossie will approach the islands from the east over the rest of the weekend into early next week and “could bring additional weather impacts to the area,” according to the National Weather Service.

Click an image to expand
Erick, 11 p.m. 8.2.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Erick, 11 p.m. 8.2.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Erick, 11 p.m. 8.2.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.

Flossie Continues on Track WNW, “Little Change” in Strength

There is little change in track for Tropical Storm Flossie as the system continues to track WNW, brushing the northern edge of the island chain Sunday into early next week.

At 11 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located about: 840 miles E of Hilo, 905 miles ESE of Hāna; 940 miles ESE of Kahului; 975 miles ESE of Kaunakakai; and 970 miles ESE of Lānaʻi City (near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 142.3 West).

Flossie is moving toward the WNW near 17 mph, with some slowing in forward speed over the next two days, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts and “gradual weakening” is expected over the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.

Click an image to expand
Flossie 11 p.m. 8.2.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Flossie 11 p.m. 8.2.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Flossie 11 p.m. 8.2.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.

(Update: 5 p.m. 8.2.19)
Erick Continues to Weaken, Moving Well South of Hawaiʻi

Erick is barely hanging on as a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph.  At 5 p.m. on Friday, Aug. 2, 2019, the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located about 310 miles SSW of Honolulu, 335 miles SW of Hāna; 320 miles SSW of Kahului; 315 miles SSW of Kaunakakai; and 300 miles SSW of Lānaʻi City (near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 159.2 West).

Erick is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, with a loss of forward speed on Sunday.

Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Erick is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low on Saturday.  According to the CPHC’s latest Forecast Discussion, “Erick iz now expected to become a tropical depression overnight and weaken to a post-tropical remnant low by Saturday.”

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center reports that hazards associated with Erick include the following:  Swells generated by Erick will continue to affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands tonight.

Click an image to expand
Erick 5-day forecast cone. 5 p.m. 8.2.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Erick earliest arrival of tropical storm force winds 5 p.m. 8.2.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Erick wind speed probabilities. 5 p.m. 8.2.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.

Flossie Moves into Central Pacific

Flossie is now located about 930 miles E of Hilo, Hawaiʻi and has moved into the Central North Pacific basin “as a messy system.”

At 5 p.m., Flossie was located: 995 miles ESE of Hāna; 1030 miles ESE of Kahului; 1065 miles ESE of Kaunakakai; 1060 miles ESE of Lānaʻi City (near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 141.0 West). Flossie was moving toward the WNW near 17 mph, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts.  The CPHC says gradual weakening is anticipated over the weekend and will likely continue through early next week.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.

According to the latest Forecast Discussion issued by the CPHC, “The current forecast is close to the IVCN and HCCA guidance, and makes Flossie a tropical depression after 48 hours to the east of the main Hawaiian Islands.”

Click an image to expand
Flossie 5-day cone forecast. 5 p.m. 8.2.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Flossie earliest possible impacts of tropical-storm force winds. 5 p.m. 8.2.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Flossie wind speed probabilities. 5 p.m. 8.2.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.

(Update: 11 a.m. 8.2.19)
Erick Continues Weakening, 320 miles SSW of Kahului

At 11 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located about: 305 miles SW of Hilo, Hawaiʻi, 265 miles SW of Kailua-Kona, 240 miles SW of South Point, 330 miles SSW of Hāna, 320 miles SSW of Kahului, 325 miles SSW of Kaunakakai, and 305 miles SSW of Lānaʻi City (near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 158.4 West. Erick is moving toward the west near 13 mph.  The CPHC says Erick’s WNW movement will continue with a gradual loss in forward speed expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Erick is expected to become a remnant low by Sunday, according to the CPHC.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center says hazards associated with Erick include:

  • Swells generated by Erick will continue to affect the main Hawaiian Islands today, producing dangerous surf conditions, mainly along east and southeast facing shores.
  • Moisture associated with Erick will continue to spread over portions of the main Hawaiian Islands through early Saturday, bringing the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible, with localized higher amounts.

Flossie About to Reach Central Pacific

The National Hurricane Center says at 11 a.m., Flossie was located: 1030 miles E of Hilo, 1095 miles E of Kailua-Kona, 1065 miles E of South Point, 1100 miles ESE of Hāna, 1130 miles ESE of Kahului, 1160 miles ESE of Kaunakakai, 1160 miles ESE of Lānaʻi City and 1230 miles ESE of Honolulu (near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 139.5 West).

Flossie is moving toward the WNW near 17 mph and is forecast to cross into the central Pacific basin during the next few hours, according to the NHC.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph with higher gusts.  The NHC says gradual weakening is anticipated over the weekend and will likely continue through early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.

(Update: 9 a.m. 8.2.19)
Flood Advisory for Hawaiʻi Island Extended to 11:45 a.m.

The National Weather Service issued a Flood advisory for the island of Hawaiʻi until 11:45 a.m. on Friday, Aug. 2, 2019. The NWS says radar at 8:50 a.m. showed heavy rain near Naʻalehu falling at a rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Locations in the advisory include: Pāhala, Wood Valley, Kawa Flats, Hawaiian Ocean View, Punaluʻu Beach and Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park.

(Update: 6 a.m. 8.2.19)
Flood Advisory for Hawaiʻi Island Until 9 a.m.

The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Advisory for Hawaiʻi Island until 9 a.m. on Friday, Aug. 2, 2019.

At 6 a.m., radar showed “a large area of moderate to heavy rain,” falling at a rate of 1-2 inches per hour, and moving ashore over the southeast slopes and windward areas of the Big Island.

Locations in the advisory include: Hilo, Hawaiian Acres, Naʻalehu, Orchidlands Estates, Glenwood,
Pepeʻekeo, Keaʻau, Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, Volcano, Pāhala, Oʻokala and Wood Valley.

There is also a Flash Flood Watch in effect for Hawaiʻi Island through Saturday morning.

(5:06 a.m. 8.2.19)
Wind Advisory Until 6 p.m. for parts of Maui and Big Island

A Wind Advisory is in effect until 6 p.m. Friday for parts of Maui County and the Big Island.

The National Weather Service says East winds between 20 and 40 mph are expected, with gusts over 45 mph.

Areas in the advisory include: windward Molokaʻi, windward and makai portions of Lānaʻi, Kahoʻolawe,
windward and leeward areas of West Maui, the Maui Central Valley, windward and leeward Haleakalā, north and south Big Island, and East/Kohala Big Island interior.

Winds this strong are capable of downing trees and causing power outages.

(Update: 5 a.m. 8.2.19)
Erick Continues to Weaken, Moves Further Away from Hawaiʻi

The center of Erick will pass by well to the south of the main Hawaiian Islands today and tonight.

At 5 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located: about 250 miles SW of Hilo, Hawaiʻi; 220 miles SSW of Kailua-Kona; 185 miles SW of South Point; 290 miles SSW of Hāna; 290 miles SSW of Kahului; 295 miles S of Kaunakakai; 275 miles S of Lānaʻi City; and 315 miles S of Honolulu (near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 157.4 West). Erick is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed is expected over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple days. Erick is expected to become a tropical depression by Sunday, and a post-tropical remnant low Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s Forecast Discussion states: “Erick is forecast to weaken into a tropical depression by Sunday, and become a post-tropical remnant low Sunday night. Dissipation into a trough is now forecast to occur by Monday night.”

Swells generated by Erick will continue to affect the Hawaiian Islands today, producing dangerous surf conditions, mainly along east and southeast facing shores.

Moisture associated with Erick will continue to spread over portions of the Hawaiian Islands through early Saturday, bringing the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible, with localized higher amounts.

Click an image to expand
Erick 5 a.m. 8.2.19, 5-day forecast cone. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm Force Winds for Erick. (5 a.m. 8.2.19) PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Tropical-Storm Force Wind Speed Probabiliites for Erick. (5 a.m. 8.2.19) PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Satellite imagery of Erick and Flossie (9 a.m. 8.2.19) PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Two-day graphical Tropical Weather Outlook with Erick and Flossie. (11 p.m. 8.1.19) PC: NOAA/CPHC
Winds sustained for Erick, 5 a.m. 8.2.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC

Flossie to Enter Central Pacific Later Today:

The track forecast has not been significantly changed from the previous advisory.

At 5 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located about: 1145 miles E of Hilo, Hawaiʻi, 1210 miles ESE of Kailua-Kona; 1185 miles E of South Point; 1210 miles ESE of Hāna; 1245 miles ESE of Kahuluil 1275 miles ESE of Kaunakakai; 1275 miles ESE of Lānaʻi City; and 1345 miles ESE of Honolulu (near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 137.8 West).

Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph and this general heading with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected through early next week. On the forecast track, Flossie is forecast to cross into the central Pacific basin later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated over the weekend and will likely continue through early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.

Click an image to expand
Flossie 5 a.m. 8.2.19, 5-day forecast cone. PC: NOAA/NHC.
Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm Force Winds for Flossie. (5 a.m. 8.2.19) PC: NOAA/CPHC
Tropical-Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities for Flossie. (5 a.m. 8.2.19) PC: NOAA/CPHC

(Update: 8:52 a.m. 8.2.19)
Flood Advisory for Hawaiʻi Island Until 11:45 a.m.

The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Advisory for the island of Hawaiʻi until 11:45 a.m. on Friday, Aug. 2, 2019.  The NWS says radar at 8:50 a.m. showed heavy rain near Naʻalehu, falling at a rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour.  Locations in the advisory include: Pahala, Wood Valley, Kawa Flats, Hawaiian Ocean View, Punaluʻu Beach and Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park.

(Update: 3:26 a.m. 8.2.19)
Flood Advisory for Big Island Extended to 6:30 a.m.

A flood advisory has been issued for the Big Island of Hawaiʻi until 6:30 a.m. on Friday, Aug. 2, 2019.

The National Weather Service say radar at 3:23 a.m. showed a large area of moderate to heavy rain falling at 1-2 inches per hour was continuing to move onshore over the southeast slopes and windward areas of the Big Island.

The NWS says locations in the advisory include but are not limited to: Hilo, Hawaiian Acres, Naʻalehu, Paʻauilo, Orchidlands Estates, Glenwood, Pepeʻekeo, Keaʻau, Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, Honokaʻa, Volcano and Laupahoehoe.

(Update: 12:48 a.m. 8.2.19)
Flood Advisory for Big Island

A flood advisory has been issued for the Big Island until 3:45 a.m.

The National Weather Service says radar at 12:38 a.m. indicated moderate to heavy rain of 1-2 inches per hour was continuing to move ashore over the southeast slopes of the Big Island.

(Update: 11 p.m. 8.1.19)

Erick Continues “Rapid Weakening” Well South of Big Island

The center of Erick will pass by around 175 miles south of the Big Island tonight, with Tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 105 miles from the center, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Forecasters with the CPHC say Erick is expected to become a tropical depression by Sunday, and a post-tropical remnant low on Monday.

At 11 p.m. on Thursday, Aug. 1, 2019, the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located about: 230 miles SSW of Hilo, Hawaiʻi; 175 miles S of South Point; 300 miles S of Hāna; 315 miles S of Kahului; 335 miles SSE of Kaunakakai, Molokaʻi; and 310 miles SSE of Lānaʻi City (near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 155.8 West).

Erick is moving toward the WNW near 13 mph with a turn toward the NW expected on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts, keeping Erick at tropical storm status.

Rapid weakening is forecast to continue tonight, followed by gradual weakening Friday into the weekend.

The CPHC says hazards associated with Erick will include:

  • Swells generated by Erick will build across the Hawaiian Islands tonight and Friday, producing dangerous surf onditions, mainly along east and southeast facing shores.
  • Moisture associated with Erick will spread over portions of the Hawaiian Islands through Saturday, bringing the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible, with localized higher amounts.
Click an image to expand
Satellite imagery of Erick. (11 p.m. 8.1.19) PC: NOAA/CPHC
Two-day graphical Tropical Weather Outlook with Erick and Flossie. (11 p.m. 8.1.19) PC: NOAA/CPHC
Satellite imagery of Erick on its approach to Hawaii and Flossie in the Eastern Pacific. (11 p.m. 8.1.19) PC: NOAA/CPHC
5-day cone forecast for Erick. (11 p.m. 8.1.19) PC: NOAA/CPHC
Earliest Reasonable Arrival Timme of Tropical-storm Force Winds for Erick. (11 p.m. 8.1.19) PC: NOAA/CPHC
Tropical-Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities for Erick. (11 p.m. 8.1.19) PC: NOAA/CPHC

Flossie Still “Moving Quickly” WNW; Will Cross into Central Pacific Basin on Friday

Flossie is forecast to cross into the central Pacific basin Friday afternoon. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Friday and continue through the weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.

At 11 p.m. on Thursday, the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located about 1240 miles E of Hilo, Hawaiʻi (near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 136.4 West).

Flossie is moving toward the WNW near 18 mph and has maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts. That’s just below the 74 mph needed for hurricane status.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.

The NHC says, “It is worth noting that the confidence in the 4-day forecast position of Flossie is still low, and the average error of track and intensity forecasts at that range is about 150 miles and 20 mph, respectively.”

Click an image to expand
5-day Cone forecast for Flossie. (11 p.m. 8.1.19) PC: NOAA/CPHC
Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm Force Winds for Flossie. (11 p.m. 8.1.19) PC: NOAA/CPHC
Tropical-Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities for Flossie. (11 p.m. 8.1.19) PC: NOAA/CPHC

The National Weather Service issued an Area Synopsis saying:

“Gusty easterly winds will continue through Saturday as Tropical Storm Erick passes south of the state. Deep tropical moisture expected to move over the islands north of Erick will keep the rain chances up, initially over the eastern portion of the state tonight, then across the smaller islands Friday through Saturday. The best chance for heavy rainfall and flash flooding will remain over Big Island windward areas. Additional impacts will include large seas and surf for the exposed coasts. Later this weekend through early next week, Tropical Storm Flossie will approach and could bring additional impacts to the islands.”

Wendy Osher
Wendy Osher leads the Maui Now news team. She is also the news voice of parent company, Pacific Media Group, having served nearly 20 years as News Director for the company’s six Maui radio stations.

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