5 p.m.: Flossie & Erick Update, New System Gil

August 3, 2019, 12:13 AM HST · Updated August 3, 5:35 PM
Wendy Osher · 0 Comments
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Erick, Flossie and Gil, 5 p.m. 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.

Erick and Flossie Saturday Updates: http://mauinow.com/?p=308647
Maui Storm Closures/Cancellations/Notices: http://mauinow.com/?p=308555
Storm Impacts for Airports, Harbors, Highways: http://mauinow.com/?p=308580

Note: The next official update from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be posted at 11 p.m. on Saturday, Aug. 3, 2019.  

(Update: 5 p.m. 8.3.19)

Flossie “Gradually Weakening”

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The Central Pacific Hurricane Center says Flossie continues to gradually weaken and is expected to become a tropical depression Sunday night and a remnant low Tuesday.

According to the CPHC’s latest Forecast Discussion, the forecast track “was again nudged to the left at 48 hours and beyond, bringing the weakening tropical cyclone closer to Hawaiʻi.”  The latest forecast cone brings Flossie over and along the islands as a depression.

At 5 p.m., Tropical Storm Flossie was located about 620 miles E of Hilo, 630 miles WSW of Hāna, 605 miles WSW of Kahului, 575 miles WSW of Kaunakakai, 575 miles WSW of Lānaʻi City and 530 miles WSW of Honolulu, and had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center, and forward motion is toward the W near 13 mph, according to the CPHC.

Forecasters say swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days, “potentially producing dangerous surf conditions, mainly along east and southeast facing shores.”

Flossie 5-day forecast cone at 5 p.m. on 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.

Click an image to expand
Satellite imagery of the Central Pacific showing Erick and Flossie at 5 p.m. 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Flossie tropical storm force winds earliest possible arrival times, 5 p.m. 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Flossie tropical storm force wind speed possibilities. 5 p.m. 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.

Erick Weakens to Tropical Depression

Erick has passed well SW of the state and has been downgraded to a tropical depression.  At 5 p.m., the system was last tracked about 530 miles WSW of Honolulu with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center says Erick continues on a WNW path and is traveling at 14 mph, becoming a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday, and dissipate on Monday.

Gil: Little Change in Strength, Expected to Dissipate by Tuesday

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Tropical Storm Gil, which developed earlier today in the Eastern North Pacific.  Forecasters with the NWS say the system will begin a gradual weakening trend by late Sunday and is expected to dissipate by Tuesday.

At 5 p.m., Gil was located about 1050 miles WSW of the southern tip of Baja California.

Gil has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, and tropical-storm force winds extend outward of up to 80 miles from the center, according to the NHC.  The NHC says present movement is toward the W at 12 mph.

Click an image to expand
Satellite imagery of the Central and East Pacific showing Erick, Flossie and Gil at 5 p.m. 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Tropical Depression Erick. 5 p.m. 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Tropical Storm Gil. 5 p.m. HST 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/NHC.

(Update: 11 a.m. 8.3.19)

Flossie Continues Weakening, Will be Tropical Depression Sunday

Flossie is expected to become a tropical depression Sunday, according to the latest forecast issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.  Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to gradually weaken and pass northeast of the state Sunday night and Monday, according to the National Weather Service in Honolulu.

At 11 a.m., TS Flossie was located about: 690 miles E of Hilo; 755 miles E of Kailua-Kona; 730 miles E of South Point; 760 miles ESE of Hāna; 790 miles ESE of Kahului; 825 miles ESE of Kaunakakai; 820 miles ESE of Lānaʻi City; and 890 miles ESE of Honolulu (near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 144.5 West).

The latest forecast shows Flossie moving toward the WNW near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with weakening forecast during the next two days, according to the CPHC.

Forecasters say tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center says swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days, potentially producing dangerous surf conditions, mainly along east and southeast facing shores.

Click an image to expand
Flossie 5-day cone forecast. 11 a.m. 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Flossie earliest possible impacts of tropical-storm force winds. 11 a.m. 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Flossie tropical-storm force wind speed possiblities. 11 a.m. 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.

Gil Forms in the Eastern North Pacific

At 11 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Gil was located 980 miles WSW of the southern tip of Baja California (near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 122.4 West). Gil is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph. A general westward motion at about the same forward speed is forecast for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. “Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is anticipated by early next week, and Gill is expected to dissipate by Tuesday,” according to the National Hurricane Center.

The NHC says tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center.

Erick, Flossie and Gil. Satellite imagery 11 a.m. HST 8.3.19 PC: NOAA/CPHC.

Erick “Moving Away” from the Main Hawaiian Islands

Erick is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today or tonight, then become a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday, according to the latest forecast issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

At 11 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located about: 570 miles WSW of Hāna; 545 miles WSW of Kahului; 520 miles WSW of Kaunakakai; 515 miles WSW of Lānaʻi City; 480 miles SW of Honolulu (near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 163.9 West). Erick is currently moving W near 13 mph.

The CPHC says maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.

Click an image to expand
Erick 5-day cone forecast. 11 a.m. 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Erick earliest possible arrival times of tropical storm force winds. 11 a.m. 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Erick tropical storm force wind possibilities. 11 a.m. 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.

(Update: 5 a.m. 8.3.19)

CPHC: Flossie “Floundering Forward”

Flossie will approach the islands from the east late Sunday and could bring unsettled weather, according to the National Weather Service.

Flossie currently has maximum sustained winds near 60 mph and is located about 855 miles ESE of Kahului, Maui.  The Central Pacific Hurricane Center say gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.

At 5 a.m., Tropical Storm Flossie was located about 760 miles E of Hilo, Hawaiʻi, 820 miles E of Kailua-Kona, 795 miles E of South Point, 825 miles ESE of Hāna, 855 miles ESE of Kahului, 895 miles ESE of Kaunakakai, and 885 miles ESE of Lānaʻi City (near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 143.5 West).

The CPHC says Flossie is moving toward the WNW near 14 mph.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.

Potential hazards affecting land according to CPHC: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days, potentially producing dangerous surf conditions, mainly along east and southeast facing shores.

Click an image to expand
Flossie 5-day forecast cone. 5 a.m. 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Flossie earliest reasonable arrival time of tropical storm force winds. 5 a.m. 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/ CPHC.
Flossie tropical-storm force wind speed probabilities. 5 a.m. 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC

Erick Continues Path West Away from Hawaiian Islands,
Remains a Tropical Storm with 40 mph winds

Erick is currently holding on to Tropical Storm status with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph, but the system is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low later today or tonight as it continues a path well away from the state.

At 5 a.m., Tropical Storm Erick was located 480 miles WSW of Kailua-Kona, 480 miles WSW of South Point, 510 miles WSW of Hāna, 490 miles WSW of Kahului, 465 miles SW of Kaunakakai, 460 miles SW of Lānaʻi City, and 430 miles SW of Honolulu (near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 162.8 West).

Erick continues on a path W near 14 mph. A turn toward the WNW is expected shortly, with this general motion then expected to continue for the next couple days at a slightly slower forward speed, according to the CPHC.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center, according to the CPHC.

The National Weather Service says, “Trade wind weather will prevail across the islands today through early part of Sunday as high pressure ridge stays far north of the islands. Passing low clouds and showers will affect mainly windward and mountain areas.”

Click an image to expand
Erick, 5-day forecast cone. 5 a.m. 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Erick 5 a.m. Wind speed probabilities. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Erick, earliest reasonable arrival time of winds. 5 a.m. 8.3.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.

Forecasters Monitoring New Depression Eight-E

A new depression has formed in the Eastern Pacific. It currently has winds of 35 mph and was moving toward the WNW near 10 mph.

The National Hurricane Center says shear is expected to prevent any strengthening of the cyclone in the near term.

According to the NHC forecast, “In addition to the shear, the depression will move into a drier airmass and begin to move over more marginal sea surface temperatures in about 24 hours. This should result in weakening and the depression is expected to dissipate in a couple of days.”

The cyclone should continue westward for the next day or two until it dissipates, according to the latest forecast.

Hurricane Season Runs From June 1 to November 30.
Are You Prepared?

7 a.m. update 8.3.19. PC: NHC/NOAA.

 

 

 

Wendy Osher
Wendy Osher leads the Maui Now news team. She is also the news voice of parent company, Pacific Media Group, having served nearly 20 years as News Director for the company’s six Maui radio stations.

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