Photo Credit: Brittney Cruz

West Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 79. East northeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming west southwest in the morning.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 60. East northeast wind 5 to 7 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 80. East wind 5 to 8 mph becoming north in the morning.

South Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 79. East northeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming west in the morning.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 58. East northeast wind 5 to 7 mph.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. East wind around 8 mph becoming south southwest in the morning.

North Shore

Today: Sunny, with a high near 77. South wind 5 to 7 mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 59. North wind 5 to 7 mph becoming east southeast after midnight.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 78. East wind 5 to 9 mph becoming north northeast in the afternoon.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny, with a high near 79. West southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming east southeast in the morning.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 57. North northeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming southwest in the evening.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 80. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny, with a high near 64. Southeast wind around 9 mph becoming west in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 47. North northeast wind around 6 mph.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. North northeast wind around 7 mph.

East Maui

Today: Sunny, with a high near 77. West wind 5 to 8 mph becoming east in the morning.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 55. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 78. East wind 5 to 9 mph.

Lanai City

Today: Isolated showers after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming west southwest in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 55. North wind 5 to 8 mph becoming east after midnight.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the morning.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny, with a high near 77. East northeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming west southwest in the morning.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 59. North northwest wind around 6 mph becoming east northeast after midnight.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. East northeast wind 5 to 9 mph becoming north northwest in the morning.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light and variable winds will prevail through the weekend, leading to mostly clear and cool nights and mornings. Our airmass will become more stable. Expect a mostly dry weather pattern, with increased upslope clouds and showers possible in the afternoons. Another front will move through the islands late Monday and Tuesday, and could bring another round of widespread rainfall. Cool and dry air will follow the front around midweek.

Discussion

Light northwest flow prevails this morning, driven by the gradient between a high to our northwest and a persistent surface low to the north. Cool conditions will linger into Monday, with light northwest winds becoming light and variable later today as a surface ridge moves over the islands. An upper trough will steadily move east away from the area and mid-level temperatures will warm significantly. This will lead to decreasing showers moving ashore along the north and west facing coasts and slopes, but will likely allow afternoon sea breezes to drive interior cloud formation, with a few showers. In contrast to our light surface flow, a strong subtropical jetstream pushing in across the islands in the wake of the departing upper trough has nudged winds across the Big Island summits above Wind Advisory threshold, prompting issuance of this advisory for the highest elevations through Sunday afternoon. Lower down, nighttime land breezes will likely translate to mostly clear nights and mornings. Rainfall chances will be limited with the dry air mass and increasing stability.
A cold front will move through the islands early next week, with another upper trough expected to bring very cold air aloft, decreasing stability. As this system approaches on Monday, winds will become south to southwest and increase to moderate strength. Despite some model differences, another round of widespread rainfall appears possible Monday through Tuesday as this feature moves through. Localized flooding and a few thunderstorms could accompany the front. More settled northwest flow is expected mid- week, with light and variable winds potentially following.

Aviation

VFR conditions will prevail through the weekend as the dry and cool airmass remains in place. Light northwest low-level flow will lead to overnight and early morning land breezes and afternoon sea breezes.

Marine

A weak ridge moving over the islands will keep winds light into Monday. A low north of the state will move slowly northeast through Sunday and allow a weak cold front northwest of the chain to pass across the islands Monday into Tuesday. Monday’s winds will become moderate southwest ahead of the boundary. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds will occur in the wake of the front Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.
The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will be in place through this afternoon.
High, more moderate period northwest swells will remain through today before subsiding during the day Sunday. Overlapping northwest to north swells will maintain High Surf Advisory (HSA) surf along smaller island northern and western exposed coastlines through Sunday morning. Diminishing northwest or north swells will have surf falling below HSA criteria by Sunday afternoon.
The next high, long period swell will build in from the northwest and reach the western local waters Monday. These northwest swells will again build surf back up to advisory heights on Tuesday… peaking surf to high-end HSA heights along north and west-facing shores Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. These swells will subside late Wednesday through Thursday. No other significant swells are expected through the forecast period.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Niihau, Kauai Windward, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Oahu Koolau, Molokai, Maui Windward West, Maui Central Valley, Windward Haleakala.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov