Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 14 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. East wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. East northeast wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

South Side

Today: Scattered showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 82. Light north wind increasing to 8 to 13 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 67. North wind 11 to 13 mph.

Thursday: Scattered showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 81. North wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

North Shore

Today: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Windy, with a northeast wind 21 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Scattered showers, mainly between 7pm and 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Breezy, with a northeast wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Scattered showers, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Windy, with an east northeast wind 16 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Central Maui

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Windy, with a northeast wind 17 to 22 mph increasing to 23 to 28 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Scattered showers, mainly after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Windy, with a northeast wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Upcountry

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. Breezy, with a north wind 6 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 55. Breezy, with a north wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Thursday: Scattered showers after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 66. Breezy, with a north wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

East Maui

Today: Showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. Breezy, with an east southeast wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Breezy, with an east wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Breezy, with an east wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Scattered showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Breezy, with an east northeast wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Kaunakakai

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Sunny, with a high near 79. Windy, with an east wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Scattered showers, mainly after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Breezy, with an east wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Scattered showers, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Windy, with an east wind 21 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure north and northeast of the islands will keep breezy to windy trades in place through the weekend. Drier trade wind weather is expected through late Wednesday. Upper level troughing, along with an influx of moisture from the east, will likely increase shower coverage and intensity Thursday through the weekend.

Discussion

A high far northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands is driving fresh to strong trade winds across local waters this evening, while a trough sits about 600 miles west of Kauai. Satellite loop shows broken to overcast low clouds across most windward areas as well as across upper slopes of Kona district of the Big Island. Overcast layered clouds along the eastern flank of an upper trough to the west of the island chain are beginning to drift eastward across Kauai. Radar shows light to moderate showers drifting across Kauai and across windward portions of Maui and the Big Island. Showers will taper off tonight before the next cloud band moves in by the trades late Wednesday.
The high northeast of the state will strengthen Wednesday night, boosting wind speeds through Friday night. Troughing northwest of the state will then cause winds to decrease again this weekend. Daytime wind speeds will likely be at or just below advisory levels in exposed areas over the next few days.
A broad upper trough will develop across the islands and persist into this weekend. This will raise the inversion and enhance trade wind showers. An elevated inversion will limit strong downsloping wind gusts. Showers will continue to favor windward and mauka areas. We will consider the possibility of thunderstorms as time gets closer.

Aviation

The primary aviation hazard during the forecast period will be breezy to locally strong trades, including an increased threat for a localized wind shear hazard at susceptible locations. Additional slight strengthening of the trades is expected during the forecast period. In the near term, Windward Maui through Big Island will experience frequent reductions to MVFR as showers expand in coverage and stream onshore. As a result, AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration has been issued for those locations. Prevailing VFR is forecast elsewhere.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for lee turbulence for the entire area.

Marine

Strong high pressure north and northeast of the islands will keep strong to near gale force easterly trade winds blowing through early next week.
A combination of strong trade winds and elevated seas will produce Small Craft Advisory conditions across most coastal waters at least through the weekend, and possibly into the first half of next week. A Gale Watch remains in effect for the Alenuihaha Channel starting on Wednesday morning as trade wind speeds are forecast to strengthen.
Strong trade winds will produce elevated surf along east facing shores through the first half of next week. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) remains in effect for east facing shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island through 6 AM Saturday. This HSA will likely need to be extended into early next week.
A series of small overlapping northwest swells will move through the area through the weekend. Surf heights along exposed north and west facing shores will remain below HSA thresholds through early next week.
A small out of season south swell will give a boost to south shore surf late Thursday through early Saturday. Otherwise, surf along south facing shores will remain small through early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Kauai Windward, Oahu Koolau, Olomana, Molokai Windward, Maui Windward West, Windward Haleakala, South Big Island, Big Island North and East.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for Alenuihaha Channel.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov