Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for August 08, 2021

August 8, 2021, 7:15 AM HST
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Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny, with a high near 88. East northeast wind 8 to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 68. East northeast wind 6 to 13 mph.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming east northeast 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon.

South Side

Today: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 67. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening.

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Monday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

North Shore

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Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 15 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers after 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Breezy, with an east wind 14 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Isolated showers before 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 11 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Central Maui

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Today: Sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with a northeast wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Breezy, with a northeast wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. West southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Light and variable wind becoming east northeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning.

East Maui

Today: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. East northeast wind 5 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Monday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Light east wind becoming east northeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Breezy, with a northeast wind 17 to 22 mph decreasing to 8 to 13 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Isolated showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Northeast wind 7 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny, with a high near 88. East northeast wind 9 to 13 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 72. East northeast wind 8 to 13 mph.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 88. East northeast wind 5 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue today, before easing slightly during the first half of the week as high pressure north of the state weakens. Rather dry weather will persist through Monday, with more humid conditions and increased rain chances expected Tuesday through Wednesday as the remnant moisture from former tropical cyclone Jimena moves through the islands. Drier more typical trade wind weather is expected to return Thursday and continue into next weekend, along with a slight increase in trade wind speeds.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1029 mb high is centered around 1250 miles north of Honolulu, and is driving moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure (the remnant of former tropical cyclone Jimena) is located around 675 miles east of the Big Island. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy skies in most areas, with a few pockets of more substantial cloud cover in some windward locales. Radar imagery shows a few light showers moving into windward areas, with rain free conditions in most leeward locales. Main short term concerns revolve around trade wind trends and increasing rain chances as the old tropical remnants move through.
High pressure north-northeast of the islands will keep moderate to locally breezy trade winds in place today. The trades will ease slightly Monday through Wednesday as high pressure weakens far northeast of the state, but hold generally at moderate levels. We should then see a subtle increase in trade wind speeds Thursday into next weekend as high pressure becomes more dominant north of the island chain.
As for the remaining weather details, fairly dry conditions should continue to hold in place statewide through Monday, with showers limited to mainly windward and mauka areas during the night and early morning hours. The leading edge of some deeper moisture associated with former tropical cyclone Jimena should begin to filter into the region Monday night and Tuesday, bringing an increase in showers particularly to windward areas. This deeper moisture will slowly pass through the islands Tuesday night through Wednesday night, likely bringing showery weather to windward areas and some showers to leeward locales as well. We should see drier and more typical trade wind conditions return Thursday through next weekend, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas, mainly at night and during the early morning hours.
Some more humid weather will likely accompany the remnants of Jimena as they pass through the islands. Dewpoints are forecast to climb into the 70s beginning Tuesday and continuing through Thursday, making it feel rather uncomfortable from what we’ve been experiencing lately. Drier more comfortable weather should then return by Friday and continue into next weekend.

Aviation

A high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep brief passing showers over windward and mountain slopes of the smaller islands. The Big Island will see periods of passing showers with brief MVFR conditions later this afternoon that may require an AIRMET for Mountain Obscuration.
Trade wind speeds will slowly later tonight and tomorrow as the high pressure system far north of the islands slowly drifts away from the state. AIRMET Tango for Moderate Turbulence S thru W of all island mountains will continue at least into the morning hours.

Marine

High pressure north of the state will maintain generally moderate to fresh trade winds today. Recent satellite scatterometer passes depicted locally strong trades channeling through the typically windier areas surrounding Maui County and those waters south of the Big Island. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for these areas through early Monday morning. The northeastern movement of high pressure far north of the region will weaken the pressure gradient across the state. This will ease trades back to more gentle and moderate speeds.
In response to weakening trades, surf along east facing shores will gradually fall the next few days. The next south swell is timed to arrive along the island’s southern shorelines late Monday with a Tuesday into Wednesday peak. This should translate to the return of higher, typical summertime level surf along south facing shores Tuesday and Wednesday. Nearly flat conditions continue along most north facing shores through Monday. Incoming west to northwest swells emanating from a series of compact lows passing across the Northwest Pacific will provide a boost to mid to late week north shore surf.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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