Photo Credit: Randy Alona Gallegos

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 69 to 74. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 87. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 70. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 68 to 74 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 86. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 62 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 52 at the visitor center to around 49 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 67 at the visitor center to around 64 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 68 to 74 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 67. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 60 to 71. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trade winds will continue through the weekend, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations overnight through the morning periods. Very little moisture making it into leeward areas will translate to the drought conditions prevailing. A slight increase in windward shower coverage can’t be ruled out late Saturday night through the second half of the weekend as a weak trough passes to the south. A return of drier trade wind conditions is expected early next week.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement heading into the weekend and depicts rising upper heights as the upper ridge noses westward over the region and an upper low to the west moves out. Plenty of middle- to upper-level dry air combined with a strong subsidence inversion and surface ridge anchored north of the area will support the stable trade wind pattern holding through the first half of the weekend. The northern periphery of an area of enhanced low-level moisture associated with a weak trough passing to the south Sunday through Monday may translate to better windward and mauka showers – best chance over the Big Island. A return of drier trade wind conditions is shown early next week as the surface trough continues westward and diminishes.

Aviation

With a nearly stationary high pressure center remaining far north of the area, trade winds will persist in the moderate to locally breezy range through today and beyond. VFR will prevail over most areas most of the time, but lower cloudiness and showers moving along with the trades will bring MVFR conditions to mainly windward and mauka sections from time to time.
An AIRMET remains in effect for low level turbulence to the lee of the mountains statewide. However, this will likely be cancelled with the next issuance.

Marine

The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for traditionally windier waters around Maui and the Big Island has been cancelled. Seas will near the SCA level threshold again Friday due to a combination of a north-northwest swell and trade wind waves.
A northwest swell will gradually ease through today. A larger north-northwest swell should begin to fill in tonight and peak Friday, with surf likely below advisory levels along exposed north and west facing shores of the smaller islands. This swell will slowly fade into the weekend. Surf along south facing shores will remain elevated through the second half of the week as a long-period south swell moves through. This should peak today before fading into the weekend. Surf along east facing shores will remain small and choppy due to the fresh/strong trades locally and just upstream of the state.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov