Photo Credit: Leosan Miguel

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 67 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 77 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 70 near the shore to 48 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 82 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 73. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 43 to 54. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 77 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 70 near the shore to 48 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 83. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 67 to 89. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 58 to 75. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 67 to 88. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trades will weaken to moderate from Wednesday onward and will remain on the drier side throughout this time. The best opportunities for rain will be over windward and mauka areas during the overnight and early morning hours.

Discussion

A compact upper-level shortwave evident on water vapor imagery is approaching the islands from the north this morning and is modeled to become increasingly closed off from the westerlies as it approaches the state during the next 18 hours or so. A noticeable reduction of trade winds into the moderate category is then expected from Wednesday onward as the upper low eases the local pressure gradient and spends the remainder of the forecast period advancing from east to west over the area. Although the inversion will remain slightly elevated or weaker than normal at times during this period, indications from upstream satellite and the latest model solutions are that limited moisture availability will still support relatively dry trades for at least the next several days. Some increase in cirrus coverage is probable by the end of the week as the strengthening southwesterly upper jet funnels convective debris from the ITCZ over area skies.

Aviation

Surface high pressure N of the islands will produce breezy to locally strong ENE trade winds, and AIRMET Tango for low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain on all islands will remain posted.
Moisture immediately upstream is relatively sparse, but still contains a sufficient amount of low clouds to deliver a few showers to windward coasts and slopes, producing isolated MVFR VIS/CIG in SHRA. VFR conditions will prevail over most leeward areas, but afternoon clouds on the leeward slopes of the Big Island will likely produce isolated MVFR conditions. An area of increased low-level moisture further upstream may arrive later today, bringing the potential for increased windward shower coverage.

Marine

A fairly tight pressure gradient, generated by high pressure far north of the area in combination with a surface trough moving west to the south of the island chain, is helping to produce trade winds in the moderate to breezy range over coastal waters. This will persist into Tuesday. Wind speeds may slow a bit late Tuesday through Thursday as high pressure north of the islands weakens. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA), that had been covering most of the Hawaiian coastal waters, has been reduced in area to the typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island as the surface trough passes slowly west of the area. The SCA will likely be dropped everywhere Tuesday into Thursday as winds ease further.
The north-northwest swell will continue to slowly lower, with north shore surf dropping through the day. A small north swell will build in Tuesday into Wednesday with a small bump in surf heights expected along north facing shores. The south swell will fade to background level surf heights through at least Wednesday. The trade wind swell will gradually decrease today and Tuesday. East shore surf will increase back to near average heights on Thursday or Friday as the trades increase once more.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST early this morning for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov